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Another important question. How to make a collective decision. Single people and small committees miss information that other group members might have relevant to the choice. Votes and large committees/working groups suck and are very heavy weight. How should decisions be made.

I've got some feelin...(read more)

(decision theory quality * tightness of feedback loops)/proxy divergence = winning

In terms of community modification/formation, I wonder whether people in our cluster are too eager to form new communities from scratch and too reticent to modify existing communities. If this view is correct, it might be best to optimize for finding a community that scores well according to non-mal...(read more)

My forecast of the net effects of "ethical" discussion is negative; I expect it to be a cheap, easy, attention-grabbing distraction from technical issues and technical thoughts that actually determine okay outcomes.

Has the net effect of global poverty discussion been negative for the x-risk moveme...(read more)

Can you explain why the American revolution was a conservative revolution?

in the process of destroying its own attention

Do people have thoughts on whether this is a good thing or a bad thing? I wrote some software that seems to have solved this problem for me, and I'd be interested to know if pe...(read more)

For what it's worth I found the "re-implement backprop" to be extremely useful in developing a gears-level model of what was going on under the hood.

Andre Karpathy's "A Hacker's Guide to Neural Networks" is really good, and I think focuses on getting a good intuitive understanding of what's going ...(read more)

My first stab at it (will be doing over the weekend). Collect a big list of drama and -storms, and look for commonalities or overarching patterns, in either the failure modes, or in the list of what could have been done to prevent them ahead of time. There are lots of different group failure modes, ...(read more)

Very grateful for this post, and commit to responding in more detail on Saturday

I think the conflation is "decades out" and "far away".

There are many ways to then conclude that AGI is far away where far away means decades out. Not that decades out is all that far away. Eliezer conflating the two should freak you out. AGI reliably forty years away would be quite the fire alarm.

I don't think I understand this point. Is the conflati...(read more)