LESSWRONG

Contents - Summary - Surveys First SurveyMonkey survey (S1) Second SurveyMonkey survey (S2) Google Surveys survey (GS) Wikimedia Foundatio

To keep this post manageable in length, I have only included a small subset of the illustrative examples and discussion. I have published a

Note: This is the concluding post of my LessWrong posts related to my forecasting work for MIRI. There are a few items related to forecastin

As part of my work for MIRI on forecasting, I'm considering the implications of what I've read up for the case of thinking about AI. My purp

This question is a follow-up of sorts to my earlier question on academic social science and machine learning. Machine learning algorithms

I asked this question on Facebook here, and got some interesting answers, but I thought it would be interesting to ask LessWrong and get a l

This post explores the question: how strongly should we defer to predictions and forecasts made by people with domain expertise? I'll assume

This is a somewhat long and rambling post. Apologies for the length. I hope the topic and content are interesting enough for you to forgive

Note: This post is part of my series of posts on forecasting, but this particular post may be of fairly limited interest to many LessWrong r

In an earlier post, I looked at some general domains of forecasting. This post looks at some more specific classes of forecasting, some of w