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Examples of Mitigating Assumption Risk

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Competitive Truth-Seeking

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How to Learn from Experts

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Systematic Lucky Breaks

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Recent Comments

I'm specifically giving up games that encourage many short check-ins, e.g. most phone games and idle games. Binges aren't a big issue for me, they tend to give me joy and renewal. But frequent check-in games make me less happy and less productive.

"Prefer a few large, systematic decisions to many small ones." Pick what percentage of your portfolio you want in various assets, and rebalance quarterly, rather than making regular buying/selling decisions Prioritize once a week, and by default do whatever's next on the list when you complete a tas...(read more)

A good general rule here is to think in terms of what percentage of your portfolio (or net worth) you want in a specific asset class, rather than making buying/selling a binary decision. Then rebalance every 3 months. For example, you might decide you want 2.5%-5% in crypto. If the price quadrupled,...(read more)

It's widely believed that humans basically lived in <200 person tribes that didn't interact with each other too much before agriculture, so one might wonder how anything got any amount of adoption. And only about 100 years ago, humanity essentially forgot the cure for scurvy: more)

One thing I'd add to that list is that the post focuses on refining existing concepts, which is quite valuable and generally doesn't get enough attention.

Providing Slack at the project level instead of the task level is a really good idea, and has worked well in many fields outside of programming. It is analogous to the concept of insurance: the RoI on Slack is higher when you aggregate many events with at least partially uncorrelated errors. One maj...(read more)

Nitpick: as I understand, Feyerabend would agree. His main argument seems to be "any simple methodology for deciding whether a scientific theory is true or false (such as falsificationism) would have missed important advances such as heliocentrism, Newton's theory of gravity, and relativity, therefo...(read more)

I could have been clearer - hiring is definitely a case where you get some points for following consensus, unlike, say, active investing where you're typically measured on alpha. And following consensus on some parts of your process is fine if you have an edge elsewhere (e.g. Google and Facebook pay...(read more)

I think the main cause is that people who view themselves are solving a problem are often using the procedure "look at the current pattern and try to find issues with it." A process that complements this well is "look at what's worked historically, and do more of it." Some examples I wrote about a w...(read more)

In my head, it feels mostly like a tree, e.g:

"I must have spelled oshun right"

–Otherwise I can't write well

– –If I can't write well, I can't be a writer

–Only stupid people misspell common words

– –If I'm stupid, people won't like me

etc. For me, to unravel an irrational alief, I generally ...(read more)