Richard_Kennaway

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So, is your conclusion ("the place where one stops writing") that there is an unsolved hard problem, there is a solved hard problem, or there is no hard problem?

I happen to have been looking at some ETFs based on AI-related companies, and all of them showed the same pattern: a doubling of value from inception (2018 or 2019) to early 2022, then losing a lot of that over the next year, and from then to date recovering to about their former peak. Investing in any of them two years ago would have been literally a waste of time. I did not see this pattern in a few non-AI-related indexes. Are there any events between then and now to account for this, or it is just random fluctuation?

Is this what is happening?

  1. The moderators invent a rule that sounds reasonable, based on how much karma over what period of time from whom.

  2. The rule turns out to produce too many bans.

  3. The moderators review the bans, but are anchored by the fact that the rule banned them.

  4. Go to 1.

I want to push back a little bit on this simulation being not valuable—taking simple linear models is a good first step, and I've often been surprised by how linear things in the real world often are. That said, I chose linear models because they were fairly easy to implement, and wanted to find an answer quickly.

I was thinking more of the random graphs. It's a bit like asking the question, what proportion of yes/no questions have the answer "yes"?

And, just to check: Your second and third example are both examples of correlation without causation, right?

Yes, I broadened the topic slightly.

Answer by Richard_KennawayApr 03, 2024175

I don't believe that the generating process for your simulation resembles that in the real world. If it doesn't, I don't see the value in such a simulation.

For an analysis of some situations where unmeasurably small correlations are associated with strong causal influences and high correlations (±0.99) are associated with the absence of direct causal links, see my paper "When causation does not imply correlation: robust violations of the Faithfulness axiom" (arXiv, in book). The situations where this happens are whenever control systems are present, and they are always present in biological and social systems.

Here are three further examples of how to get non-causal correlations and causal non-correlations. They all result from taking correlations between time series. People who work with time series data generally know about these pitfalls, but people who don't may not be aware of how easy it is to see mirages.

The first is the case of a bounded function and its integral. These have zero correlation with each other in any interval in which either of the two takes the same value at the beginning and the end. (The proof is simple and can be found in the paper of mine I cited.) For example, this is the relation between the current through a capacitor and the voltage across it. Set up a circuit in which you can turn a knob to change the voltage, and you will see the current vary according to how you twiddle the knob. Voltage is causing current. Set up a different circuit where a knob sets the current and you can use the current to cause the voltage. Over any interval in which the operating knob begins and ends in the same position, the correlation will be zero. People who deal with time series have techniques for detecting and removing integrations from the data.

The second is the correlation between two time series that both show a trend over time. This can produce arbitrarily high correlations between things that have nothing to do with each other, and therefore such a trend is not evidence of causation, even if you have a story to tell about how the two things are related. You always have to detrend the data first.

The third is the curious fact that if you take two independent paths of a Wiener process (one-dimensional Brownian motion), then no matter how frequently you sample them over however long a period of time, the distribution of the correlation coefficient remains very broad. Its expected value is zero, because the processes are independent and trend-free, but the autocorrelation of Brownian motion drastically reduces the effective sample size to about 5.5. Yes, even if you take a million samples from the two paths, it doesn't help. The paths themselves, never mind sampling from them, can have high correlation, easily as extreme as ±0.8. The phenomenon was noted in 1926, and a mathematical treatment given in "Yule's 'Nonsense Correlation' Solved!" (arXiv, journal). The figure of 5.5 comes from my own simulation of the process.

Reply221111

I kept expecting a punchline that never came. Is this an April Fool?

I don’t know, I seem to have misread it as “ Four-fifths know sun revolves around earth”.

If the subtitle of the report is as quoted, the report writers are even wronger than that.

Exploring this on the web, I turned up a couple of related Substacks: Chris Langan's Ultimate Reality and TELEOLOGIC: CTMU Teleologic Living. The latter isn't just Chris Langan, a Dr Gina Langan is also involved. A lot of it requires a paid subscription, which for me would come lower in priority than all the definitely worthwhile blogs I also don't feel like paying for.

Warning: there's a lot of conspiracy stuff there as well (Covid, "Global Occupation Government", etc.).

Perhaps this 4-hour interview on "IQ, Free Will, Psychedelics, CTMU, & God" may give some further sense of his thinking.

Googling "CTMU Core Affirmations" turns up a rich vein of ... something, including the CTMU Radio YouTube channel.

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