LESSWRONG

These are quick notes on an idea for an indirect strategy to increase the likelihood of society acquiring robustly safe and beneficial AI.

Counterfactual trade is a form of acausal trade, between counterfactual agents. Compared to a lot of acausal trade this makes it more practi

Prioritisation is mostly about working out how to trade different resources off against one another. Prioritisation problems come at differe

I've just released a Future of Humanity Institute technical report, written as part of the Global Priorities Project. Abstract: This ar

I'm pleased to announce Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions, a short new FHI technical report. Abstract: We look at the stre

Summary: We can split the cost-effectiveness of an intervention into how good the cause is, and how good the intervention is relative to the

In some recent work (particularly this article) I built models for estimating the cost effectiveness of work on problems when we don’t know

At a societal level, how much money should we put into medical research, or into fusion research? For individual donors seeking out the best

Main claims: 1. A lot of discussion of decision theories is really analysing them as decision-making heuristics for boundedly rational age

Crossposted from the Global Priorities Project This is an introduction to the principle that when we are making decisions under uncertaint