LESSWRONG

Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be

Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be

Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be

The 2006 report from NASA's "Independent Verification and Validation Facility" makes some interesting claims. Turning to page 6, we learn th

Over at Edge, Tetlock discusses "expert political judgment", the controversy surrounding Nate Silver's presidential predictions, overconfide

Previously: part 1 The three tactics I described in part 1 are most suited to making an initial forecast. I will now turn to a question th

Previously: Raising the waterline, see also: 1001 PredictionBook Nights (LW copy), Techniques for probability estimates Low waterlines imp

Among the goals of Less Wrong is to "raise the sanity waterline" of humanity. We've also talked about "raising the rationality waterline": t

TL;DR: I align with the minority position that "there is a lot less to the so-called placebo effect than people tend to think there is (and