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This was a fantastic read! (In the interests of letting other people have more trust, I did some research on the Cambrian Explosion a bit ago for this piece [https://eukaryotewritesblog.com/2017/08/14/evolutionary-innovation/], and the author here accurately represents everything as far as I know. T...(read more)

There's a lot of uncertainty in this field. I would hope to see a lot of people very quickly shift a lot of effort into researching:

* Effective interventions for reducing the number of insects in the environment (without, e.g., crashing the climate) * Comparative effects of different kinds of la...(read more)

Yes, I see - it seems like there are two ways to do this exercise.

1) Everybody writes their own predictions and arranges them into probability bins (either artificially after coming up with them, or just writing 5 at 60%, 5 at 70%, etc.) You then check your calibration with a graph like Scott Alex...(read more)

I would imagine that at the 50% level, you can put down a prediction in the positive or negative phrasing, and since it'll be fixed at the beginning of the year (IE, you won't be rephrasing it six months in), you should expect 50% of them to end up happening either way. Right?

(50% predictions are...(read more)

Hello friends! I have been orbiting around effective altruism and rationality ever since a friend sent me a weird Harry Potter fanfiction back in high school. I started going to Seattle EA meetings on and off a couple years ago, and have since read a bunch of blogs, made friends who were into existe...(read more)

I'd like to know if anyone knows good research (or just good estimates) of the following:

* Mental effects of hormonal birth control, especially long-term or subtle (think personality changes, maybe cognition, etc, not just increased risk of diagnosed mental illness) * If anyone's estimated QALYs l...(read more)

This resonates. When a group conversation became unexpectedly intimate, I've definitely felt that urge to bail - or interfere and bring the conversation back to a normal level of engagement. It feels like an intense discomfort, maybe a sense of "I shouldn't be here" or "they shouldn't have to answer...(read more)

Comparative solsticeology: I helped organize the Seattle Solstice, and also attended the Bay Solstice. Both were really nice. A couple major observations:

The Seattle Solstice (also, I think, the New York one) had a really clear light-dark-light progression throughout the presentations, the Bay one...(read more)