Davidmanheim

Davidmanheim

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Prescientific Organizational Theory (Ribbonfarm)

This is a linkpost for http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2017/02/21/prescientific-organizational-theory/

A Quick Confidence Heuristic; Implicitly Leveraging "The Wisdom of Crowds"

Let’s say you have well-informed opinions on a variety of topics. Without information about your long term accuracy in each given area, how

Most empirical questions are unresolveable; The good, the bad, and the appropriately under-powered

A Cruciverbalist’s Introduction to Bayesian reasoning

Map:Territory::Uncertainty::Randomness – but that doesn’t matter, value of information does.

In risk modeling, there is a well-known distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, which is sometimes referred to, or thought o

Meetup : Finding Effective Altruism with Biased Inputs on Options - LA Rationality Weekly Meetup

Discussion article for the meetup : Finding Effective Altruism with Biased Inputs on Options - LA Rationality Weekly Meetup WHEN: 20 Jan

Perceptual Entropy and Frozen Estimates

A Preface During the 1990’s, a significant stream of research existed around how people process information, which combined very different

Meetup : Complex problems, limited information, and rationality; How should we make decisions in real life?

Discussion article for the meetup : Complex problems, limited information, and rationality; How should we make decisions in real life? W

Meetup : Group Decision Making (the good, the bad, and the confusion of welfare economics)

Discussion article for the meetup : Group Decision Making (the good, the bad, and the confusion of welfare economics) WHEN: 08 May 2013