LessWrong 2.0

Aug 24, 2017

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by Eliezer_Yudkowsky

The last sequence focused in on how feeling tribal often distorts our ability to reason. Now we'll explore one particular cognitive mechanism that causes this: much of our reasoning process is really rationalization—story-telling that makes our current beliefs feel more coherent and justified, without necessarily improving their accuracy.

Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People

Once upon a time I tried to tell my mother about the problem of expert calibration, saying: "So when an expert says they're 99% confident,

Update Yourself Incrementally

Politics is the mind-killer. Debate is war, arguments are soldiers. There is the temptation to search for ways to interpret every possible

One Argument Against An Army

Followup to: Update Yourself Incrementally Yesterday I talked about a style of reasoning in which not a single contrary argument is allow

The Bottom Line

There are two sealed boxes up for auction, box A and box B. One and only one of these boxes contains a valuable diamond. There are all man

What Evidence Filtered Evidence?

Yesterday I discussed the dilemma of the clever arguer, hired to sell you a box that may or may not contain a diamond. The clever arguer po

Rationalization

Followup to: The Bottom Line, What Evidence Filtered Evidence? In "The Bottom Line", I presented the dilemma of two boxes only one of whi

A Rational Argument

Followup to: The Bottom Line, Rationalization You are, by occupation, a campaign manager, and you've just been hired by Mortimer Q. Snodg

Avoiding Your Belief's Real Weak Points

A few years back, my great-grandmother died, in her nineties, after a long, slow, and cruel disintegration. I never knew her as a person, b

Motivated Stopping and Motivated Continuation

Followup to: The Third Alternative, The Meditation on Curiosity While I disagree with some views of the Fast and Frugal crowd—IMO they ma

Fake Justification

Many Christians who've stopped really believing now insist that they revere the Bible as a source of ethical advice. The standard atheist r

Is That Your True Rejection?

It happens every now and then, that the one encounters some of my transhumanist-side beliefs—as opposed to my ideas having to do with human

Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies

"One of your very early philosophers came to the conclusion that a fully competent mind, from a study of one fact or artifact belonging to a

Of Lies and Black Swan Blowups

Followup to: Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies Judge Marcus Einfeld, age 70, Queens Counsel since 1977, Australian Living Treasure 1997,

Dark Side Epistemology

Followup to: Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies If you once tell a lie, the truth is ever after your enemy. I have previously spoken of

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Eliezer_Yudkowsky

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