LessWrong 2.0

Aug 24, 2017

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by Eliezer_Yudkowsky

This sequence focuses on questions that are as probabilistically clear-cut as questions get. The Bayes-optimal answer is often infeasible to compute, but errors like confirmation bias can take root even in cases where the available evidence is overwhelming and we have plenty of time to think things over.

The Proper Use of Humility

It is widely recognized that good science requires some kind of humility. What sort of humility is more controversial. Consider the creat

The Third Alternative

"Believing in Santa Claus gives children a sense of wonder and encourages them to behave well in hope of receiving presents. If Santa-belie

Lotteries: A Waste of Hope

The classic criticism of the lottery is that the people who play are the ones who can least afford to lose; that the lottery is a sink of mo

New Improved Lottery

People are still suggesting that the lottery is not a waste of hope, but a service which enables purchase of fantasy—"daydreaming about beco

But There's Still A Chance, Right?

Years ago, I was speaking to someone when he casually remarked that he didn't believe in evolution. And I said, "This is not the nineteenth

The Fallacy of Gray

Followup to: Tsuyoku Naritai, But There's Still A Chance Right? The Sophisticate: "The world isn't black and white. No one does pure

Absolute Authority

Followup to: But There's Still A Chance Right?, The Fallacy of Gray The one comes to you and loftily says: "Science doesn't really know

How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3

In "What is Evidence?", I wrote: This is why rationalists put such a heavy premium on the paradoxical-seeming claim that a belief is only

Infinite Certainty

Followup to: How To Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3, Absolute Authority In Absolute Authority, I argued that you don't need infinite certaint

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities

Followup to: Infinite Certainty 1, 2, and 3 are all integers, and so is -4. If you keep counting up, or keep counting down, you're boun

Your Rationality is My Business

Some responses to Lotteries: A Waste of Hope chided me for daring to criticize others' decisions; if someone else chooses to buy lottery tic

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Eliezer_Yudkowsky

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