SaidAchmiz
a day ago
on LessWrong 2.0 Feature Roadmap & Feature Suggestions

Well, I think I might've been unclear. I wasn't actually suggesting that upvotes come with authorship labels. All the reasons you list for why this isn't a great idea, I agree with.

I was saying, rather, that the upvote/downvote system is fundamentally missing something; that it can't substitute for expressing explicit verbal agreement. The immediate corollary that should occur to us is: what is voting even for?

Consider a scenario. I write a post about software usability. A hundred people read it, and have a strong enough opinion on its quality that they are moved to click the voting widget. 99 of those people are ordinary LessWrongers, with no particular expertise in the subject. They upvote me. The 100th person is Jakob Nielsen. He downvotes me.

My post now has a score of 99 points. Is this an accurate representation of its value?

No. One “layman” doesn't equal one Jakob Nielsen, when it comes to evaluating claims or opinions about usability engineering. Even 99 laymen doesn't equal one Jakob Nielsen. If Nielsen thinks that my post is crap, and that basically everything I'm saying is wrong and confused, well, basically, that's that. 99 non-expert LessWrongers doesn't “balance that out”, and the sum of “99 LessWrongers think I'm right” and “Jakob Nielsen thinks I'm wrong” does not come out to “a score of +99! what a great post!”. That's just not how that math works.

Furthermore, suppose Nielsen posts a comment under my post, saying “this is crap and you're a nincompoop”. What, now, is the value of that “99” score, to a reader? You now know what a domain expert thinks. Unless other domain experts weigh in, there's nothing more to discuss. That 99 LessWrongers disagree with Jakob Nielsen about usability is... interesting, perhaps, in some academic sense. But from an epistemic standpoint, Nielsen's hypothetical comment tells you all you need to know about my post. The upvote score is obviated as a source of information about my post's value.

And yet, it's the upvote score that would be used, by various automated parts of the system (and by readers who aren't checking the comments carefully), to decide how good my post is. That seems perverse! Now, I'm not suggesting that "sort by experts' opinions, as expressed in comments" is a viable algorithm, of course. But this scenario, in my mind, calls into serious question what upvotes mean, and what sense there is in using them as a way to judge the value of content.

SaidAchmiz
2 days ago
on LessWrong 2.0 Feature Roadmap & Feature Suggestions

Having written the parent comment, it occurred to me to wonder whether it was needed or useful; after all, there's already an upvote button, right? (Which I dutifully clicked, of course.) Did I just write the comment out of habit, having spent considerable time commenting in venues with no voting feature?

But what the upvote counter doesn't tell me is who upvoted something!

As a commenter/upvoter, I'd like to (have the chance to) communicate something more than "someone liked this post/comment enough to click upvote"; I'd like to convey "Not just someone, but I, whom you may know, whose views you may be familiar with, whose credentials on relevant topics you may investigate, agree with / endorse / support / etc. this post/comment".

And as a reader, I'd like to know who it is that agrees with, endorses, supports, etc. the post/comment in question. Maybe their opinion carries great weight with me; maybe they mean nothing to me; maybe their endorsement is, for me, an anti-endorsement.

(Then, of course, there's the old problem that it's not actually all that clear what it means, to upvote or downvote a comment. (All of you who disagree, and think it is clear—how sure are you that it's clear to everyone else, or even that everyone who thinks it's clear has the same understanding? Have we checked?) This, for me, was probably the biggest problem with LW 1.0's karma system, because it was fundamental and conceptual, and transcended any issue with moderation or what have you.)

So, in other words: upvoted, yes. But also verbally endorsed, and the endorsement signed.

SaidAchmiz
8 days ago
on LessWrong 2.0 Feature Roadmap & Feature Suggestions

Very nice!

Some comments on the design, pro and con:

Cons

Grey text

Grey text makes it harder to read than plain black. If you want to reduce contrast, consider instead making the background off-white (either #fcfffa or #f9fff5 would be fine — 99% or 98% lightness of the same hue as the theme color green).

Post visual separation

A bit hard to detect when one post ends and another begins, on a skim. Some possible solutions:

  1. Add border to posts (on class "comments-item", add border: 1px solid #cbd6c2, padding: 4px 6px); or,

  2. Add background color to posts (on class "comments-item", add background-color: #edefeb, padding: 4px 6px); or,

  3. Greater v-spacing of posts (on class "comments-item", set margin-bottom: 30px)

Bugs (?)

  • The hamburger menu only closes with another click on the hamburger menu (best practices is for a click anywhere else on the page—outside the menu—to close it)

  • Upvote/downvote buttons and vote count appear twice on each post (above and below)

  • When adding a link in a comment, hitting Return/Enter in the link URL popup does not cause it to close (i.e. does not have the effect of hitting the Submit button) (Mac OS X 10.9, Chrome 60.0.3112.101)

Miscellaneous

  • Mini-hamburger menu on each post has just one menu item (Subscribe); consider simply having a Subscribe link on the post itself, in small text

  • Hamburger menus considered harmful in general; consider substituting an on-hover drop-down (achieves the same effect, but with fewer clicks)

Typography

  • Line spacing ("line-height" CSS property) of body text of posts (not comments) is too large (more than 1.8); consider reducing to 1.5 (with the short line length—which is good!—this should be more than sufficient to ensure readability)

  • Conversely, line spacing of body text of comments is a bit too low (1.25); consider increasing to 1.35

  • The bold weight of the body-text font is barely distinguishable from the regular weight. This is, unfortunately, an uncorrectable feature of the "ET Book" font; no heavier weight is available, as far as I can tell. Consider using one of these free alternatives:

    (or something else; in any case, the kind of font is just right, but this particular font family happens to have this flaw...)

Comment editing UI

  • Consider adding something to visually distinguish the comment currently being written, from surrounding comments; perhaps, a lighter, or darker, background (depending on whether you implement one of my suggestions above for visual separation of posts)?

    • The reason this is helpful is that, when writing a comment, I might scroll around the page—to the OP, or to other comments—to reference other people's words, etc., and then want to continue writing the comment. (Note that the Tab key does not take me to the comment editing field, which would mostly obviate this issue; this, I presume, is just a feature of how this editing UI is implemented...)

Archive browse feature

Or rather, the lack thereof. To be added in the future, I hope?

Pro

Almost everything else!

Typography

  • The body text font is attractive and readable and the default text size is good for readability (on a 1080p desktop monitor, anyway) (but see Cons)

  • The text column width is good

  • Layout of comment blocks is attractive and uncluttered

  • Overall typography is well-done

Layout

  • Uncluttered and aesthetically pleasing visual design

  • (mostly) excellent front page layout (but see below); puts the interesting stuff front and center

  • Layout of post pages also solid; easy to navigate

  • Seems like the layout will transfer quite well to mobile platforms (looking forward to seeing the design of the mobile version of the site!)

UI elements

  • Well done on the redesign of the post sort order widget! This is spot-on

  • Very nice comment composition/editing UI! I haven't been actually impressed with one of these for a long time; is it custom or third-party?

  • The stripes to the left of the comments (indicating comment hierarchy) are quite useful

Performance

  • Seems good so far; no major issues!

Extra bonus commentary

Front page layout

Here's how the front page looks on a 1080p screen

Ok, nothing too wrong here...

And here's how the front page would look like on a 4k screen

Hmmm.

Consider allowing the front-page content to occupy two columns, on wide viewports. (Perhaps, Recommended Reading and Featured Posts on the left, and Recent Posts and Recent Comments on the right?)

Navigation UI

Currently, when I'm viewing a post or comment page, and I wish to navigate to somewhere else on the site, I have to first go to the front page, then go from there to where I want to go. This is not quite optimal.

As an alternative to removing the hamburger menu (or transforming it into an on-hover drop-down), consider expanding its use; perhaps, for example, put a copy of the Recent Posts/Recent Comments/Feature Posts feeds in there?

In closing

Overall, good work on the redesign! Thumbs up :)

abramdemski
a month ago
on Subtle Forms of Confirmation Bias

Pyrrhonian Scepticism as described there sounds like the thing I'm arguing against as not-quite-right: looking for the negation. The idea implies that you're attached to a hypothesis. It sets a low bar, where you come up with one other hypothesis. I won't deny that this is a useful mental tool, but false dichotomies are almost as bad as attachment to single beliefs, and for the same reason, and it sets up a misleading standard of evidence. The idea that you generate experiments by trying to falsify a hypothesis is confusing. It's better than trying to confirm, but only because it starts to point toward the real thing. You generate experiments, and evidence, by trying to differentiate.

EDIT: Ok, that seems too strong. "trying to disprove"/"looking for the negation" is a convenient whipping-boy for my argument, because it's a pervasive idea which value-of-information beats. Nonetheless, asking "what if I'm wrong about that?" is more like the starting point for generating multiple hypotheses, than it is an alternative. So, the method is inexact because it is incomplete. It's likely, for example, that the way Peter Thiel employs the method amounts to the whole picture I'm gesturing at. But, there's a different way you can employ the method, where the negation of your hypothesis is interpreted to imply absurd things. In this version, you can think you're making the right motions (not falling prey to confirmation bias), and be wrong.

The steel-man of Pyrrhonian Skepticism is something like "look for cruxes" in the double-crux sense. Look for variables which have high value of information for you. Look for things which differentiate between the most plausible hypotheses.

RyanCarey
2 months ago
on A combined analysis of genetically correlated traits identifies 107 loci associated with intelligence | bioRxiv

HT Gwern. The important bottom-line is that with a sample of 147k participants, we can now predict 6.9% of phenotypic intelligence. Relevant quotes below, with my emphasis:

This study had four goals: firstly, to facilitate the discovery of new genetic loci associated with intelligence; secondly, to add to our understanding of the biology of intelligence differences; thirdly, to examine whether combining genetically correlated traits in this way produces results consistent with the primary phenotype of intelligence; and, finally, to test how well this new meta-analytic data sample on intelligence predict phenotypic intelligence variance in an independent sample. We apply Multi-Trait Analysis of Genome-wide association studies to three large GWAS: Sniekers et al (2017) on intelligence, Okbay et al. (2016) on Educational attainment, and Hill et al. (2016) on household income. By combining these three samples our functional sample size increased from 78 308 participants to 147 194. We found 107 independent loci associated with intelligence, implicating 233 genes, using both SNP-based and gene-based GWAS.

The effects of age, sex, and population stratification (7 components) were controlled for using residuals extracted from a regression model.

Using our meta-analytic data set on intelligence we carried out polygenic prediction into Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study and found that 6.9% of phenotypic intelligence could be predicted (Table 2), an improvement of 43.75% on previous estimates of 4.8%

Hypothesis
2 months ago
on [Classifieds] What are you doing to make the world a better place and how can we help?

LessWrong is not an appropriate discussion venue for both of my most important current endeavors, so instead I'll start us off with something a bit lighter weight that might help capture the spirit I'd like the thread to have:

A Complete History Of The Word 'Hacker'

I am attempting to chronicle the complete history of the word hacker, from its beginnings in the 1950's as jargon among MIT students (and possibly even earlier as a term used by Ham Radio operators) through the decades to the present day. This includes the split between the MIT hacker community and the phreaking community (which later evolved into the computer 'hacking' community of intrusion artists). For more information see my blog post summarizing most of my research so far.

The basic impact I expect this project to have is to contribute to history, in particular the intellectually and culturally fascinating history of the two major subcultures chronicled by the proposed work.

You can help if you happen to meet one of the following criteria:

  • You happen to have been alive during and participated in the early MIT/Stanford/etc AI scene, or were otherwise involved in the early ARPANET. In this case the best way you could contribute would be by going on record and telling your story so that the recollection is not lost to future generations. (Not impossible given the major AI focus of this community.)

  • You know someone who meets the first criteria, and can convince them to go on the historical record.

  • You're aware of documents or artifacts which predate the ones I've listed as earliest examples of a phenomena. Your pointing these out to me would be massively appreciated!

  • You're aware of interesting documents or artifacts that are not already in my bibliography on that page. I know it's quite long, so if you don't feel like reading it feel free to just message me with what comes to mind.

  • You also have an interest in the subject, and would like to partner up on researching it. In that case message me and we'll discuss where I'm at with things and what avenues are promising.

habryka
2 months ago
on Closed Beta Users: What would make you interested in using LessWrong 2.0?

So a few things I've been thinking about to solve these problems:

  • I hope we can deal with Eugene after we have a better Karma system and better moderation tools. Though we will see how hard this problem turns out to be. But my guess is that even if it turns out to be harder, it is a problem that can be solved with sufficient, but not prohibitive, engineering effort.

  • This current page already has a more aggressive scoring system that keeps highly upvoted posts at the top for longer, and which applies an exponential decay function over time, which results in you getting a mixture of recent posts and top posts as you scroll down the frontpage, instead of mostly a historical list of posts. I hope this increases visibility. I was also thinking of maybe adding a "promoted" section to the top of the posts list that always shows the top 5 promoted articles (by time-decayed score), so that you have something similar to main, without it being a whole click away.

  • I am currently hesitant to create more top-level distinctions like main/discussion/forum, both because I think it decentralizes discussion, adds mental overhead and encourages styles in different parts of the page, which makes it harder to promote the best content from anywhere on the page (i.e. if the forum is mostly written in a style appropriate to forum, then it's harder to promote that content to the frontpage with all the long-form content)

Viliam
2 months ago
on Distinctions of the Moment

Sometimes you want to talk about "A1 vs A2" and sometimes you want to talk about "A vs Z".

Maybe the distinction between A1 and A2 is rarely made, and most people just perceive them both as a general A, but today you want to talk exactly about those differences, so you need to make the difference clear by putting unusually large emphasis on the differing details. (Maybe the language doesn't even have three different words for A, A1, A2; sometimes there is just one word for both A and A1, and people would say e.g. "A in the wider/narrower sense of the word".)

But the next day you want to talk about differences between A and Z in general, and anyone who focuses on differences between A1 and A2 is losing the larger picture... well, unless those differences between A1 and A2 are actually relevant for the "A vs Z" debate you are trying to have; but in such case, the person insisting on the difference should explain how specifically it is relevant.

Essentially, greater precision comes with greater costs, so the person who increases the cost should communicate the cost-benefit analysis to their partners in the debate. Sometimes the extra cost benefits everyone by helping them reach better conclusions. Sometimes the extra cost only benefits the speaker by allowing them signal greater sophistication. Sometimes the speaker is not even aware that these two cases are different (i.e. they may be merely signalling, but it's not an intentional defection, only just blindly copying what they saw other people do in similar situations). Sometimes the speaker is too mindkilled about "A1 vs A2", e.g. because it has huge political connotations for them, so they are emotionally opposed to using "A" as an umbrella term for both.

Viliam
2 months ago
on Closed Beta Users: What would make you interested in using LessWrong 2.0?

Similar here. Two things that discourage me from posting on LW:

- knowing that if the debate gets interesting and will have even smallest political connotations, Eugine will likely harass the participants (well, before the downvotes were disabled, but disabling them brought new problems); furthermore, the potential participants are already aware of this, which makes them less likely to participate;

- there is a ton of stuff each week in Discussion, some of that low quality or just a link; regardless how much effort I put into my article, in two or three days it will be scrolled down into oblivion anyway; this was traditionally solved by Main vs Discussion, but the articles in Main paradoxically had less visibility, and the threshold for both of them was constantly lowering anyway, Main becoming the old Discussion, and Discussion becoming the old Open Thread comments.

So I'd like to see the discussion kept nice; and I'd like to see the good articles have a longer timespan.

(Not insisting on any specific technical solution, but for example the problem with "actually less visible Main" could be solved by simply posting links to 5 latest Main posts at the top of the Discussion page. There, everyone would see them, even if they only read Discussion.)

(Similarly, the "Discussion becoming new Open Thread" could be solved by having three levels, corresponding to previous Main, Discussion, Open Thread, but perhaps using different names, e.g. "Promoted", "Articles", "Forum". To avoid having to estimate the category of your own article, all new articles would go to "Forum", and then moderators would move them into higher levels using their own judgement, with karma as a guideline.)

Vaniver
3 months ago
on LessWrong 2.0 Feature Roadmap & Feature Suggestions

It'd be nice to have a better meetup system than current LW's. I think I sketched my plan out earlier, but I might as well stick it here as well:

There are two basic sorts of meetups: one-offs and regular. (Austin's "Welcome Scott Aaronson to Austin" party vs. Austin's 1:30 Saturday meetup) Both have a location, a datetime, and an organizer. The regular meetups, in addition, have a repeat frequency and might have a link to somewhere else (maybe you arrange events on Facebook or Meetup.com). (And if we could somehow automatically import events from Facebook groups, all the better.)

Because of the similarity, those both seem like they could be the same data type to me. It also seems like the best way to display them is a map with a bunch of dots, probably colored by how far in the future they are (with something like "up to four hours ago" counting as now, so that meetups don't disappear right when people are desperately trying to figure out what the address was again), with a UI that manages to map a bunch of dots on top of each other not horrible. (Maybe combine a dot view with a list view, like on Google Maps?)

One of the big motivations here is that the LW meetup map is pretty sad (sometimes the closest meetup was in Europe!) when I think there are actually a bunch of regular meetups. (It also seems like we should encourage any of the EA/rationalist/humanist/SSC/MIRIx/etc. groups to have their meetups on the map, maybe with different shapes for different types and filtering, to make it even easier to connect people. "Ah, there isn't a LW meetup in my area, but there is an EA meetup!")

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