No One Knows What Science Doesn't Know

At a family party some years ago, one of my uncles remarked on how little science really knows.  For example, we still have no idea how gravity works - why things fall down.

"Actually, we do know how gravity works," I said.  (My father, a Ph.D. physicist, was also present; but he wasn't even touching this one.)

"We do?" said my uncle.

"Yes," I said, "Gravity is the curvature of spacetime."  At this point I had still swallowed Feynman's line about being able to explain physics to one's grandmother, so I continued:  "You could say that the Earth goes around the Sun in a straight line.  Imagine a graph that shows both space and time, so that a straight line shows steady movement and a curved line shows acceleration.  Then curve the graph paper itself.  When you try to draw a straight line on the curved paper, you'll get what looks like acceleration -"

"I never heard about anything like that," said my uncle.

When was the last time, in history, when it was possible for a single human to know the knowledge of the most advanced civilization?  I've seen various estimates for this - usually in the form of polymaths nominated for the position of "last person to know everything".  One plausible candidate is Leonardo da Vinci, who died in 1519 - shortly after the printing press began to become popular, and shortly before Copernicus inaugurated the scientific revolution.

In the ancestral environment it was possible to know everything, and nearly everyone did.  In hunter-gatherer bands of less than 200 people, with no written literature, all background knowledge was universal knowledge.  If one person, in a world containing 200 people total, discovered how gravity worked, you could certainly expect to hear about it.

In a world of 6 billion people, there is not one person alive who can say with certainty that science does not know a thing.  There is too much science.  Our current lifetimes are too short to learn more than a tiny fraction of it, and more is being produced all the time.

Even if last week's technical journal doesn't contain the answer to a mystery, that doesn't mean that no one knows it.  Maybe someone out there is typing up the paper at this very moment.  You can't generalize over all 6 billion people in the world because you haven't talked to all of them - which is a non-ancestral condition!  For the vast majority of humanity's evolutionary history, it was possible to meet everyone in your little world.  Now there's 6 billion people who might know the answer to any question you care to ask, and you can't ask all of them.

No one knows anymore what no one knows.

My uncle is not an isolated phenomenon.  I've met people who think that science knows nothing about the brain, that thought is a complete mystery unto us.  (My favorite was the fellow who confidently asserted that neuroscience had been unable to assign any function "to the cerebral cortex".)  As Tom McCabe put it:  "Anyone who claims that the brain is a total mystery should be slapped upside the head with the MIT Encyclopedia of the Cognitive Sciences.  All one thousand ninety-six pages of it."

I haven't seen the movie What The Bleep Do We Know, but if the horror stories are true, it's one long celebration of imaginary ignorance.  Particularly the "mysterious effect of conscious observation" in quantum physics, which was explained away as ordinary decoherence in the 1950s, but let's not get into that again.

Ignorance should not be celebrated in the first place; I've made this point before.  It is a corruption of curiosity to prefer the question to its answer.  Yet people seem to get a tremendous emotional kick out of not knowing something.  Worse, they think that the mysteriousness of a mysterious phenomena indicates a special quality of the phenomenon itself, inferring that it is surely different-in-kind from phenomena labeled "understood".  If we are ignorant about a phenomenon, that is a fact about our state of mind, not a fact about the phenomenon itself.

In the ancestral environment, there was a certain permanence to the division between ignorance and knowledge.  If none of your fellow hunter-gatherers knew what made rain fall, it was likely that no one would ever find out in your grandchildren's lifetimes.  Today, the absence of knowledge is a fragile and temporary condition, like the darkness in a closet whose door happens to be shut.  A single thought can shatter the absence of thought.  Every scientific discovery ever made, destroyed an ancient absence-of-knowledge dating back to the dawn of time.  No one knows what 6 billion people don't know today, and still less does anyone know what 7 billion people will know tomorrow.

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"Because of the curvature of space" is, indeed, not a good explanation - especially for someone who doesn't know automatically that a curved line on a spacetime graph equals acceleration - but I did not properly realize this at the time.

The point of this essay is that someone knows the answer, not that I successfully explained it to my uncle. Someone else knowing the answer should not cause you to be any less curious, once you realize that there are no "inherently mysterious" phenomena.

Matthew, if you haven't been raised in the Christian tradition, it's simply a non-sequitur, a random unsupported claim. Like saying that the Tooth Fairy exists and only the power of the Tooth Fairy lets you know things. There's no evidence that the Tooth Fairy exists and moreover someone understands perfectly well how this "knowing" business works (see What Is Evidence?) and that's not it. If you rename the Tooth Fairy to the Truth Fairy or God it's the same problem.

Apparently the full quote from Richard Feynman is:

"I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics."

This was in 1965. Everett's first paper was in 1957 IIRC. So not only was Feynman mistaken about nobody at that time understanding quantum mechanics, but he thought this could be said safely? When there are billions of people in the world, and all ignorance and confusion is a property of the map rather than the territory?

Feynman was one of the great Traditional Rationalists, but sometimes he really does manage to get it completely wrong. Einstein was much worse in the same department: "You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother"!?

Einstein was much worse in the same department: "You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother"!?

That's probably a misquote, it turns out. I can't find any source for it and Wikiquote agrees. The closest they could find was Ronald W. Clark claiming that Louis de Broglie claimed that Einstein believed "that all physical theories, their mathematical expressions apart, ought to lend themselves to so simple a description 'that even a child could understand them.'" (I'm interpreting this to mean that Clark attributed the outer quote to de Broglie, who attributed the inner quote to Einstein while giving his own explanation of the context.) Could be true, but our knowledge of it is a few degrees away from the primary source, so there's room for it to get corrupted or taken out of context along the way. And even if it is correctly attributed and interpreted, the "their mathematical expressions apart" bit redeems it somewhat (not completely). Though that does dilute the meaning of "understand[ing]" as used, or it identifies it with (as you've termed them) verbal understanding rather than technical understanding.

I'm going to tentatively reject the belief that the "...unless you can explain it to your grandmother"/"that even a child could understand them" quotes accurately describe Einstein's belief. He may have been a Traditional Rationalist, but he wasn't stupid, and I imagine he had a great deal of experience explaining things as well as he could but not having everyone (let alone children or stereotypical grandmothers) understand him.

(And I'm going to give myself a rationalist experience point for finding the original "grandmother" quote surprising enough that I thought to look it up.)

This was in 1965. Everett's first paper was in 1957 IIRC. So not only was Feynman mistaken about nobody at that time understanding quantum mechanics, but he thought this could be said safely?

Why are you so sure Feynman is ignorant of Everett, rather than talking about him?

I'd expect that Wheeler, who liked Everett's work enough to write a companion piece, would have told his other students about it. Steve Hsu points to a 1957 conference where Wheeler talked about Everett and Feynman made it clear he was interested in this stuff.

"I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics."

This was in 1965. Everett's first paper was in 1957 IIRC. So not only was Feynman mistaken about nobody at that time understanding quantum mechanics

So long as the key link between the QM formalism and empirical observations is a mystery, I think it's fair to say that no one understands QM completely. In context, is it too charitable to read Feynman as referring to still-outstanding mysteries such as that?

I think it's likely that both quotes were unrepresentative passages or insignificant slips of tongue that only got magnified and entrenched in people's minds after years of memetic selection. It's obvious that Einstein couldn't have meant the grandmother quote seriously, also, Einstein is known to be very prone to rampant misquotation. The grandmother quote is quite comforting to the layman, even if untrue, and sounds "deep" enough, likewise the Feynman quote raises the status of confused non-physicists and physicists alike, because "not even the pros get it, and it's allowed to not get it."

Longer version of PdB's answer: "because of the curvature of space" isn't "just a curiosity stopper" if you can actually say what that means, do the mathematics, and see how that leads to the phenomenon of gravitation. Of course when you do this you encounter other more fundamental things that you haven't explained yet. (See Eliezer's "Explain/Worship/Ignore" piece here some time back.) This is only curiosity-stopping if you then say "no point ever trying to go any deeper than this".

If the fact that there are not-yet-explained things underlying the curvature of space and how it produces gravity makes it improper to say "we do know how gravity works", then I think similar facts make it improper to say "we know how a windmill works" or "we know how a seesaw works", quod est absurdum.

Scientific explanations replace mysteries with smaller mysteries. You can call that "taking mystery out of the world" if you want to, but regarding that as a criticism is just preferring ignorance and stupidity over knowledge and understanding. If science took the wonder or the curiosity out of the world, that would be a criticism worth making, but oddly enough it's a criticism only ever made by people who don't know much science.

All of which seems to me to be merely repeating things Eliezer said -- and that were common knowledge before Eliezer said them, too -- so, bjk and/or Constant, maybe I'm misunderstanding you?

Isn't "because of the curvature of space" just a curiosity stopper?

Does anyone know how to build a Friendly AI?

It seems perfectly possible to know a particular field well enough that you can predict with high confidence that nobody currently knows the answer to some question. You can never be certain of this, but that's trivial.

Eli,

Don't ever see 'what the bleep do we know'. The woo almost killed me.

Ken, logical ignorance is still ignorance; if this were not so, I would know a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis.

Nick, it's possible, though not at all probable, that someone among Earth's 6 billions is putting the finishing touches on their quiet project right now.

Nick that's an interesting thought, but it is possible that someone does know how to build a friendly AI, but may not know that he knows this. What I mean is that a person may be working on something unrelated to AI or is not interested in AI, but knows all the ingredients and technical things needed to make a friendly AI. Maybe he just doesn't know the implications of his own knowledge.

I think it's fair to say many scientists fall into this category, if only due to specialization. Maybe some inorganic chemist knows the cure to cancer. But simply due to his ignorance/uninterest in biochemistry or organic chemistry or whatever subject that's relevant is unaware of the implications of his own specialized knowledge on topics outside his area of expertise.

Eliezer:

I'm not sure I follow your argument. It seems like you want to say, not that your uncle was wrong to claim that no one has any understanding of gravity because this claim is false, but rather that he was wrong to claim this because, in general, it is always wrong to claim that science doesn't know something. At this point, you seem to suggest that simply because it is always possible that someone has secretly or just recently explained a phenomena, that therefore, one is never justified in stating that a broad community of people lack such an explanation. On the face of it, this is simply an invalid argument.

Perhaps you are interpreting claims like "neuroscience has not yet explained subjective consciousness" as saying "Nobody on planet earth, as of the time of this utterance, has any understanding of subjective consciousness." Then, perhaps, you are claiming that no such person can make a claim like that, because they have not surveyed every living person. I don't think that claims like "neuroscience has not yet explained subjective consciousness" ought to be interpreted as referring to each and every thinker as of the moment of utterance - rather, they seem to be referring to the epistemic situation of a broad community of specialists. However, even if we take the above interpretation as correct, I don't think your argument holds water.

All of science procedes via inductive generalizations. We observe the behavior of an unimaginably small percentage of the electrons in the universe, and see that they have a certain charge, mass, etc., and then induce that all electrons have that charge, mass, etc. This is a justified conclusion. I would submit that surveying a large number of neuroscientists and discovering, not only that each of them have no understanding or explanation of subjective consciousness, but that each of them tells you that they have not heard of any neuroscientists who has an understanding or explanation, is sufficient to warrant the conclusion that no one has such an understanding. Of course this claim is defeasible, of course it could be false, but that does not mean that it is not justified.

It seems to me that your uncle had not even attempted to survey the scientific community (else he certainly would have discovered that he was incorrect). And it is for this reason that his presumptions were spurious, and not because one is always incorrect to claim that something is as-yet unexplained.

The allure of the incompletely understood has something to do with wonder. The state of being curious gives me a nice warm fuzzy feeling inside that goes away when the curiosity eliminates itself. Assuming that others experience this as well, perhaps it is an evolutionary incentive to explore--to do some original seeing. This seems appropriate in the ancestral environment where, as you point out, going out and learning something new benefits the whole tribe.

In today's environment, however, most novel knowledge accessible to the average person is essentially trivial. If it were important and easy enough to learn, someone would already have found it. So people find ways to push their warm-fuzzy buttons by contemplating the implications of knowledge they don't really understand, such as quantum mechanics. This is then just a candy bar or a supermodel--a superstimulus.