Rebutting radical scientific skepticism

Suppose you distrusted everything you had ever read about science. How much of modern scientific knowledge could you verify for yourself, using only your own senses and the sort of equipment you could easily obtain?  How about if you accept third-party evidence when many thousands of people can easily check the facts?

 

My purpose with the question isn't to cast radical doubt on science; rather, it's an entertaining game of trying to understand how we know what we know. Thinking through these sorts of questions also helped me notice interesting things in the history of science that I hadn't previously focused on. It might also be of interest from a science education perspective.

Some things are much easier to check than they used to be. As late as the 19th century, there were people who were publicly skeptical about the curvature of the earth. Skeptics and scientists did careful measurements (notably the Bedford Level Experiment) to observe the earth's curvature. Today, you can verify it by phoning a friend a few time zones away and noticing that the sun reaches the zenith at steadily later times as you move west. This only makes sense if the earth is curved.

Some things are still hard to check. I don't know an easy way to show that the Earth orbits the Sun. The direct way to show it would be to measure stellar parallax. But even the closest stars have a parallax of less than an arcsecond. My understanding is that very few amateurs are able to take measurements with that level of precision.

Some things are surprisingly easy. There are lots of easily accessible demonstrations of quantum phenomena. For example, a ten dollar spectroscope will show you that an incandescent light bulb has a continuous spectrum, and that LEDs and fluorescent bulbs don't. Bright-line spectra are very much a quantum mechanical phenomenon -- it's a sign that the atoms in the light source have fixed energy transition levels. Spectroscopy was one of the key early lines of evidence for quantum mechanics, and it blows my mind that it's something you can just see whenever you want, with a negligible equipment cost.

Pretty much all of modern chemistry and solid state physics rests on a quantum foundation, and you can test a great deal of chemistry pretty easily. If you are in doubt that water is a bonded compound of two gasses, you can do the electrolysis very easily yourself. You can observe the periodicity of chemical elements yourself if you buy alkali metals (don't try this one at home!). If you are willing to accept slightly indirect evidence, the entire semiconductor industry is about precisely controlling the conductivity of impure silicon, and this would make no sense if quantum mechanics weren't a reliable guide to electron energy levels in the solid state.

I don't feel quite as qualified to play this game for biology. I imagine that antibiotic resistance is a well-enough documented case of evolution through natural selection to serve at least as a proof of concept. DNA sequence comparisons across species are emphatic evidence of taxonomic trees, if you trust the scientists not to be part of a vast conspiracy.

It feels almost impossible that it's easier to see quantum mechanical effects than it is to see that the earth orbits the sun, but it does seem that way.

Some questions:

  • Is there an easily visible consequence of special relativity that you can see without specialized equipment?
  • Can you measure the consistency of the velocity of light on your own?
  • How much can you directly demonstrate in biology or the social sciences?

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I spent quite a lot of time many years ago doing my own independent checks on astronomy.

I started down this line after an argument with a friend who believed in astrology. It became apparent that they were talking about planets being in different constellations to the ones I'd seen them in. I forget the details of their particular brand of astrology, but they had an algorithm for calculating a sort-of 'logical' position of the planets in the 12 zodiacal signs, and this algorithm did not match observation, even given that the zodiacal signs do not line up neatly with modern constellations. They were scornful that I was unable to tell them where, say, Venus would be in 12 years time, or where it was when I was born.

So challenged, I set to.

The scientific algorithms for doing this are not entirely trivial. I got hold of a copy of Jean Meeus' Astronomical Algorithms, and it took me quite a lot of work to understand them, and then even longer to implement them so I could answer that sort of question. They are hopelessly and messily empirical (which I take as a good sign) - there is a daunting number of coefficients. Eventually I got it working, and could match observation to prediction of planetary positions to my satisfaction - when I looked at them, the planets were where my calculations said they should be, more or less.

It's hard with amateur equipment to measure accurate locations in the sky (e.g. how high and in which direction is a particular star at a particular time), but relative ones are much easier (e.g. how close is Venus to a particular star at a particular time). The gold standard for this sort of stuff is occultations - where you predict that a planet will occult (pass in front of) a star. There weren't any of those happening around the time I was doing it, but I was able to verify the calculations for other occultations that people had observed (and photographed) at the date and times I had calculated.

These days, software to calculate this stuff - and to visualise it, which I never managed - is widely available. There are many smartphone apps that will show you these calculations overlaid on to the sky when you hold your phone up to it. (Although IME their absolute accuracy isn't brilliant, which I think is due to the orientation sensors being not that good.) This makes checking these sorts of predictions very, very easy. Although of course you can't check that there isn't, say, a team of astronomers making observations and regularly adjusting the data that gets to your phone.

I was also able to independently replicate enough of Fred Espenak's NASA eclipse calculations to completely convince me he was right. (After I found several bugs in my own code.) Perhaps the most spectacular verification was replicating the calculations for the solar eclipse of 11 August 1999. I was also able to travel to the path of totality in France, and it turned up slap on time and in place. This was amazing, and I strongly urge anyone reading this to make the effort to travel to the path of totality of any eclipse they can.

Until I'd played around with these calculations, I hadn't appreciated just how spectacularly accurate they have to be. You only need a teeny-tiny error in the locations of the Sun/Moon/Earth system for the shadow cast by the moon on the Earth to be in a very different place.

I also replicated the calculations for the transit of Venus in 2004. I was able to observe it, and it took place exactly as predicted so far as I was able to measure - to within, say, 10 seconds or so. (I didn't replicate the calculations for the transit in 2012 - no time and I'd forgotten about how my ghastly mess of code worked - and I wasn't able to observe it either, since it was cloudy where I was at the time.)

More recently, you can calculate Iridium flares and ISS transits. Again, you have to be extremely accurate in calculations to be able to predict where they will occur, and they turn up as promised (except when it's cloudy). And again, there are plenty of websites and apps that will do the calculations for you. With a pair of high-magnification binoculars you can even see that the ISS isn't round.

All this isn't complete and perfect verification. But it's pretty good Bayesian evidence in the direction that all that stuff about orbits and satellites is true.

One thing I should mention where I wasn't able to get a very good match between my own observations and mainstream science.

The Sun and the Moon are very, very close in their apparent diameter in the sky. They are almost exactly the same size. You can measure them yourself and compare, although this is a bit fiddly; I certainly got well within my own measurement errors, although those errors were large. However, you can verify it very easily and directly at the time of solar eclipses. They are so near in size that the wobbliness of the Moon's orbit means that sometimes the Sun is just-smaller than the Moon (when you get a total eclipse) and sometimes it is just-bigger (when you get an annular eclipse).

But they are very, very different in their actual size, and in their distance from the Earth. In Father Ted terms, the Moon is small and close; the Sun is large and far away. In rough terms, the Moon is 400,000 km away and 3,400 km across, and the Sun is 150m km away and 1.4m km across. You don't have to change any one of those four measurements much for them to be quite different apparent sizes from the Earth. Indeed, if you do the calculations (which I can personally attest to), if you go back far enough in time they weren't the same apparent size, and nor are they if you go forward a long way in to the future.

Why? Why this coincidence? And why is it only happening at just the times when humans are around to observe it?

So far as I know, we have no good theories apart from "it just happened to work out that way". This is pretty unsatisfying.

There are so many possible coincidences, it would be surprising if none of them happened.

I observed 2012 transit of Venus, right on schedule.

Don't know an easy way to prove changing earth-moon distance, but changes in speed of earth's rotation can be seen as changes in number of days per year, visible in growth layers in fossil coral. Taking a magnifying glass to the right museum might allow individual verification.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v197/n4871/abs/197948a0.html

Wow.

The closest analogue I have to that is grabbing planet positions and velocities from JPL's HORIZONS system, then doing small time steps holding accelerations constant.

That's how I know the (mathematical) solar system behaves as claimed. Except that Mercury's orbit will eventually become so elliptical and gain so much energy that it careens in and out of the solar system until it flies off to infinity (or people are also right about the limitations of the approximation technique I was using).

I'm surprised nobody has posted about finding the speed of light with a chocolate bar and a microwave, because I find that absolutely mindblowing.

The basic experiment is to take the turntable out of the microwave and put in the chocolate, nuke it for a couple of seconds until part of the chocolate starts melting and then measure the distance between the melting patches. If you have a standard microwave, you'll be on a frequency of 2.45 GHz (you can check this online or in the manual). Multiply the distance between the spots by 2,450,000,000 (or whatever the frequency is) and then by 2 and you will end up with c, to within whatever accuracy you measured the melting spots.

I guess if you were really skeptical you could say that you have no reason to believe that v = f * lambda, or that the manufacturers of microwaves or rulers were colluding to decieve you, but I think this is around the point where you can start claming the evidence of your eyes is decieving you and so on - too skeptical to add anything useful to the discussion.

This is actually a really good example of what I wanted.

I think I have a lot of reason to believe v = f lambda -- It follows pretty much from the definition of "wave" and "wavelength". And I think I can check the frequency of my microwave without any direct assumptions about the speed of light, using an oscilloscope or somesuch.

Is there an easily visible consequence of special relativity that you can see without specialized equipment?

Wasn't one verification of Einstein's theories the bending of starlight as observed in a solar eclipse?

....

Naturally, La Wik has an article on this. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity#Deflection_of_light_by_the_Sun

Sounds like the light bending requires multiple simultaneously sightings around the world, while the perihelion precession of Mercury could be more easily verified with some diligence and a telescope.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity#Deflection_of_light_by_the_Sun

Oh, you wanted Special Relativity.

La Wik saves the day again! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_special_relativity

Some genetics can be easily verfied. Some phenotypes are easy to spot: http://www.scienceprofonline.com/genetics/ten-human-genetic-traits-simple-inheritance.html Just sample a few of these and compare with parent-children pairs. This is much easier than trying Mendels pea experiments.

Is there an easily visible consequence of special relativity that you can see without specialized equipment?

A working GPS receiver.

In general, things like a smartphone "verify" a great deal of modern science.

Just direct observation, by the way, gives you little. Yes, you can observe discontinuous spectra of fluorescent lights. So what? This does not prove quantum mechanics in any way, this is merely consistent with quantum mechanics, just as it is consistent with a large variety of other explanations.

How much can you directly demonstrate in biology or the social sciences?

In biology, it really depends on what do you want demonstrate. For some things a frog and a scalpel will be sufficient :-/ Or maybe just a scalpel X-D

Is there an easily visible consequence of special relativity that you can see without specialized equipment?

A working GPS receiver.

I only believe that depends on special relativity because I was told so; if I'm so skeptical I suspect that scientist lied to me about special relativity, then I should be equally suspectful of engineers telling me GPSes have to take special relativity into account to work right.

Is there an easily visible consequence of special relativity that you can see without specialized equipment?

A working GPS receiver.

In general, things like a smartphone "verify" a great deal of modern science.

Yah. Though the immediacy of the verification will vary. When I use my cell phone, I really feel it that information is being carried by radio waves that don't penetrate metal. But I never found the GPS example quite compelling; people assure me "oh yes we needed relativity to get it to work right" and of course I believe them, but I've never seen the details presented and so this doesn't impress me at an emotional level.

I don't know how much my feelings here are idiosyncratic; how similar are different people in what sorts of observations make a big impression on them?

Just direct observation, by the way, gives you little. Yes, you can observe discontinuous spectra of fluorescent lights. So what? This does not prove quantum mechanics in any way, this is merely consistent with quantum mechanics, just as it is consistent with a large variety of other explanations.

I'm not so sure about "consistent with a large variety of other explanations" -- my impression is that nobody was able to come up with a believable theory of spectroscopy before Bohr. Can you point to a non-quantum explanation that ever seemed plausible? Furthermore once you say "okay, spectral lines are due to electron energy-level transitions", you wind up intellectually committed to a whole lot of other things, notably the Pauli exclusion rule.

As a general rule, the easiest way to verify a scientific discovery is to find out how the original discoverer did it and replicate their experiment. There are sometimes easier ways, and occasionally the discoverers used some expensive equipment... but mostly the requirement is some math and elbow grease/patience. Another advantage of replicating the original discovery is that you don't accidentally use unverified equipment or discoveries (ie equipment dependent on laws that were unknown at the time).

Another advantage of replicating the original discovery is that you don't accidentally use unverified equipment or discoveries (ie equipment dependent on laws that were unknown at the time).

I don't consider this an advantage. My goal is to find vivid and direct demonstrations of scientific truths, and so I am happy to use things that are commonplace today, like telephones, computers, cameras, or what-have-you.

That said, I certainly would be interested in hearing about cases where there's something easy to see today that used to be hard -- is there something you have in mind?

I don't consider this an advantage. My goal is to find vivid and direct demonstrations of scientific truths, and so I am happy to use things that are commonplace today, like telephones, computers, cameras, or what-have-you.

Well, you could use your smartphone's accelerometer to verify the equations for centrifugal force, or its GPS to verify parts of special and general relativity, or the fact that its chip functions to verify parts of quantum mechanics. But I'm not sure how you can legitimately claim to be verifying anything; if you don't trust those laws how can you trust the phone? It would be like using a laser rangefinder to verify the speed of light. For this sort of thing the fact that your equipment functions is better evidence that the people who made it know the laws of physics, than any test you could do with it.

Well, you could use your smartphone's accelerometer to verify the equations for centrifugal force, or its GPS to verify parts of special and general relativity, or the fact that its chip functions to verify parts of quantum mechanics.

These don't feel like the are quite comparable to each other. I do really trust the accelerometer to measure acceleration. If I take my phone on the merry-go-round and it says "1.2 G", I believe it. I trust my GPS to measure position. But I only take on faith that the GPS had to account for time dilation to work right -- I don't really know anything about the internals of the GPS and so "trust us it works via relativity" isn't really compelling at an emotional level. For somebody who worked with GPS and really knew about the internals of the receiver, this might be a more compelling example.

But I'm not sure how you can legitimately claim to be verifying anything; if you don't trust those laws how can you trust the phone? It would be like using a laser rangefinder to verify the speed of light. For this sort of thing the fact that your equipment functions is better evidence that the people who made it know the laws of physics, than any test you could do with it.

Yes of course. In real life I'm perfectly happy to take on faith that everything in my undergraduate physics textbooks was true. But I want to experience it, not just read about it. And I think "my laser rangefinder works correctly" doesn't feel like experiencing the speed of light. In contrast, building my own rangefinder with a laser and a timing circuit would count as experiencing the speed of light.

I am starting to worry that my criteria for "experience" are idiosyncratic and that different people would find very different science demonstrations compelling.

It is odd that you highlight the Bedford Level Experiment, rather than other methods that have been used for thousands of years. The new experiment has the advantage that it can be performed by a single person in a single afternoon. It has the disadvantage that it shows that the Earth is flat.

Eratosthenes measured the north-south curvature of the Earth by making observations separated by hundreds of miles. It could be applied east-west with good clocks, or, as you suggest, with the simultaneity of telephones. Since I'd have to travel hundreds of miles anyway to reach the straight canal in Bedford, it has little advantage over Eratosthenes's method. I suppose you could make a similar observation by climbing a mast on a ship the right distance from shore, but the ocean waves add noise not present on the canal. It does have the advantage of requiring less geometry. Since the Bedford experiment used 1/100 the distance, it required 100x the accuracy of angular measurement. This is easy to overlook, since the measurement is not phrased that way, but I think this is why it encounters new sources of error.

Older experiments are generally easier. While everything is easier to measure today, the main advance is in measuring time.

Bedford Level Experiment [...] has the disadvantage that it shows that the Earth is flat.

I love this. As it happens, I live quite near Bedford and am terribly tempted to actually try it one day. (Edit Looking closer, turns out the Bedford Level is in Norfolk, not Bedfordshire, so a little less nearby than I thought.)

There are loads of fun ways of verifying that the Earth isn't flat. Some of these were easily available to the ancients - e.g. the shape of the shadow of the Earth on the Moon during a lunar eclipse (it's always a curve). Others are easier now than they used to be - e.g. the variations in the constellations you can see as you travel north-south (it's much easier to travel far enough to see this than it used to be).

Some, however, simply weren't available.

My favourite explanation for how we know for sure the Earth is round is that we've been up in to space and looked. You can even verify this yourself with a GoPro and a high-altitude balloon, which many hobbyists have done.

Is there an easily visible consequence of special relativity that you can see without specialized equipment?

To a point, classical electromagnetism. You can treat the B field as the difference due to special relativity between the E field of a stationary arrangement of particles and the E field of that arrangement in motion. Also when you change the reference frame you view an arrangement of moving charges in, you see the force they feel as having come from different combinations of electric and magnetic fields but always adding up to the same thing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relativistic_electromagnetism

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_electromagnetism_and_special_relativity

That was Einstein's argument: Maxwell's equations are not compatible with Galilean relativity. But we observe Maxwell's laws to be true in all seasons, so some relativity must apply.

Can you measure the consistency of the velocity of light on your own?

Various ways to measure the speed of light. Many require few modern implements. How to measure constancy of the speed of light -- the original experiment, does not require any complicated or mysterious equipment, only careful design.

Is there an easily visible consequence of special relativity that you can see without specialized equipment?

Off the top of my head, the time dilation effect on muons, which can be seen with a cloud chamber. Less directly, most magnetic fields result from observing electric fields in a moving frame.

Various ways to measure the speed of light. Many require few modern implements. How to measure constancy of the speed of light -- the original experiment, does not require any complicated or mysterious equipment, only careful design.

The early measurements of the speed of light don't require "modern implements." They do require quite sophisticated engineering or measurement. In particular, the astronomical measurements are not easy at all. Playing the"how would I prove X to myself" game brought home to me just how hard science is. Already by the 18th century and certainly by the 19th, professional astronomers were sophisticated enough to do measurements I couldn't easily match without extensive practice and a real equipment budget.

Suppose you were going to measure the speed of light by astronomy. Stellar aberration seems like the easiest approach, and that's a shift of 20 arcseconds across a time interval of six months. This is probably within my capacities to measure, but it's the sort of thing you would have to work at. It would be a year-long or years-long observation program requiring close attention to detail. In particular, if I wanted a measurement of the speed of light accurate to within 10% I would need my measurement to have error bars of about 2 arcseconds. I suspect an amateur who knew what they were doing could manage it, but it's not something you would just stumble onto as a casual observation.

Mathematics: all the mathematics I know, I learned not merely by reading theorems, but by following through or working out their proofs. I believe that is how people who use mathematics (as opposed to merely struggling through an exam and then forgetting it all and never using it again) generally learn it.

Is there an easily visible consequence of special relativity that you can see without specialized equipment?

If you're willing to accept quantum mechanics/nuclear physics, you can calculate that Gold would be white instead of yellow if it weren't for relativistic effects.

Great post!

Evolution of antibiotic resistance is indeed fairly easy, but how about evolving something visibly different? Evolution of simple multicellularity from a unicellular ancestor is easier than you might think: http://www.snowflakeyeastlab.com/

If we can solve the earth-orbits-the-sun problem, we don't need to measure the parallax of stars accurately to show that they're really far away, which seems like an important scientific truth.

Suppose you distrusted everything you had ever read about science. How much of modern scientific knowledge could you verify for yourself, using only your own senses and the sort of equipment you could easily obtain? How about if you accept third-party evidence when many thousands of people can easily check the facts?

Interestingly enough, this was the original idea behind science. Hence, the motto of the royal society nullius in verba, or in English "Take no one's word for it".

This is a very interesting game. At a meta-level though, my belief in a lot of science is grounded in its usefulness. If people who believe in Newtonian physics can make me float in the air in a gigantic metal tube hurtling at 500 miles/hr while I sip my Coke, I suspect their belief is well-justified.

This is a very interesting game. At a meta-level though, my belief in a lot of science is grounded in its usefulness. If people who believe in Newtonian physics can make me float in the air in a gigantic metal tube hurtling at 500 miles/hr while I sip my Coke, I suspect their belief is well-justified.

Yes, and many a medieval could have reasoned thusly:

If these people can contruct such a magnificent thing as Amiens Cathedral, I suspect their beliefs are well-justified.

To be fair to the medieval, their theories about how one can build large, beautiful buildings were pretty sound.

Point taken: useful beliefs are not necessarily true beliefs.

That being said, in this particular case, belief in Jesus Christ wasn't necessary for the cathedral to be built. If you, as a medieval, saw that the Muslims and Hindus too were building magnificent things, then you should conclude that belief in a particular god in inessential (you're still allowed to conclude to that it is well-justified to believe in a god).

With airplanes, the belief in Newtonian physics is essential.

That being said, in this particular case, belief in Jesus Christ wasn't necessary for the cathedral to be built.

Sure, but in order conclude so you'd have to go beyond the people who believe x can make fancy technology y, so I suspect x is a well-justified belief heuristic.

With airplanes, the belief in Newtonian physics is essential.

My understanding of history is that this is not the case. Not too long before some bicycle mechanics were building the first airplane, prominent Newtonian physicists were saying things like "heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

While some bicycle mechanics were building the first airplane, prominent Newtonian physicists were saying things like "heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

Specifically, "I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning or of expectation of good results from any of the trials we hear of." (Wikiquote seems to imply the "heavier than air" quotation is a misquotation.) And Kelvin wrote that in 1896, when the Wright brothers were building bicycles rather than flying machines; they didn't start on the latter until 1899.

(I upvoted the parent comment because its basic point is sound, but I don't want to look like I'm upvoting the debatable history.)

In case anyone was wondering, I had changed the wording of the part satt quoted before he or she posted this comment, because I thought it sounded kind of misleading (which apparently I was right about). Good catch on the possible misquote, that was from memory.

About biology: Feynman experimented on ants learning the shortest way to sugar (if I remember it right - 'Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman!').

There are commercial products based on pheromones used to call male Colorado beetles away from potato plantations (and tales of horror about people not reading the instructions beforehand.) Also, the variability of the black spots on its pronotum is a cool illustration of well-defined phens.

There are detectors that allow you to hear bats (I don't know how much they cost.)

There are cheap ferns (Carolina Biological Supplies, for example) for high school teaching about life cycles, sexual reproduction etc., including induced mutagenesis. They also sell the growing medium.

There are lichens to measure growth rates of, and there is at least one manual on growing mosses indoor, and you can experiment with adding nutrients to the pots and see for yourself that some species don't tolerate excess organic etc.

There are heaps of things to observe. You just have to know just what you are looking for.

You want books for middle school science teachers.

EDIT: not saying that even most books in this category or what you want, but that many of the books you want are in this category.

What I remember of middle-school science had less to do with reproducing basic results and more to do with memorizing lists of organelles and looking at rotifers under a microscope.

Yes. Perhaps we might say, this is what middle school or high school science should be.

Likewise direct demonstrations are the sort of thing I wish science museums focused on more clearly. Often they have 75% of it, but the story of "this experiment shows X" gets lost in the "whoa, cool". I'm in favor of neat stuff, but I wish they explained better what insight the viewer should have.

Same, here. To get a course that taught replication and experimental design and analysis, I had to go to a residential high school specifically for Math and Science. It was a required first-semester course that spent a lot of time on how to enter data into a calculator and generate graphs/t tests/etc, and I had this nasty habit of spacing out and still completing the assignments. Suffice it to say, I was not prepared for college Physics.

I only ever had one teacher in public school who put emphasis on the science part, but that was primarily in the evaluation I got at the end of the course; meanwhile, I'd been reading Hypephysics and had been commenting excitedly about the particle zoo in the time before the bell, to no good reaction from anyone. Needless to say, rather than getting the point, I applied for the afore-mentioned Math and Science school.

Middle school science was all memorizing lists and labeling diagrams. Hell, College Biology 101 was all memorizing definitions and labeling diagrams and occasionally poking dead animals (in order to label more diagrams).

Have you looked at such books? If so, why not name specific ones?

Do you have such faith in this class of books that you recommend I choose for this class arbitrarily? I'll try that: half of the hits on the first page of google are for this book, but I haven't figured out what it is even about. Amazon then suggests this book which is about easy projects. At least I know what that means.