Cross-posted from my blog.
"The stabilization of environments" is a paper about AIs that reshape their environments to make it easier to achieve their goals. This is typically called enforcement, but they prefer the term stabilization because it "sounds less hostile."
"I'll open the pod bay doors, Dave, but then I'm going to stabilize the ship..."
Sparrow (2013) takes the opposite approach to plain vs. dramatic language. Rather than using a modest term like iterated embryo selection, Sparrow prefers the phrase in vitro eugenics. Jeepers.
I suppose that's more likely to provoke public discussion, but... will much good will come of that public discussion? The public had a needless freak-out about in vitro fertilization back in the 60s and 70s and then, as soon as the first IVF baby was born in 1978, decided they were in favor of it.
Someone recently suggested I use an "onion strategy" for the discussion of novel technological risks. The outermost layer of the communication onion would be aimed at the general public, and focus on benefits rather than risks, so as not to provoke an unproductive panic. A second layer for a specialist audience could include a more detailed elaboration of the risks. The most complete discussion of risks and mitigation options would be reserved for technical publications that are read only by professionals.
Eric Drexler seems to wish he had more successfully used an onion strategy when writing about nanotechnology. Engines of Creation included frank discussions of both the benefits and risks of nanotechnology, including the "grey goo" scenario that was discussed widely in the media and used as the premise for the bestselling novel Prey.
Ray Kurzweil may be using an onion strategy, or at least keeping his writing in the outermost layer. If you look carefully, chapter 8 of The Singularity is Near takes technological risks pretty seriously, and yet it's written in such a way that most people who read the book seem to come away with an overwhelmingly optimistic perspective on technological change.
George Church may be following an onion strategy. Regenesis also contains a chapter on the risks of advanced bioengineering, but it's presented as an "epilogue" that many readers will skip.
Perhaps those of us writing about AGI for the general public should try to discuss:
- astronomical stakes rather than existential risk
- Friendly AI rather than AGI risk or the superintelligence control problem
- the orthogonality thesis and convergent instrumental values and complexity of values rather than "doom by default"
- etc.
MIRI doesn't have any official recommendations on the matter, but these days I find myself leaning toward an onion strategy.
In my experience, in communicating on these matters to the public or generalists, it's definitely good to highlight benefits as well as risks - and that style of onion strategy sounds about right and is roughly the type of approach I take (unless in public/general discussion I'm e.g. specifically asked to comment on a particular risk concern).
In speaking to public and policymakers here (outer layer 1 to layer 1.5, if you will), I've found a "responsible innovation" type framing to be effective. I'm pro-progress, the world has a lot of problems that advances in technology will need to play a role in solving, and some of the benefits of synthetic biology, artificial intelligence etc will be wonderful. However, we can make progress most confidently if the scientific community (along with other key players) devotes some resources towards identifying, evaluating, and if necessary taking proactive steps to prevent the occurrence of extreme negative scenarios. In such presentations/discussions, I present CSER and FHI as aiming to lead and coordinate such work. I sometimes make the analogy to an insurance policy: we hope that the risks we work on would never come to pass, but if the risk is plausible and the impact would be big enough, then we can only progress with confidence if we take steps ahead of time to protect our interests. This seems to be effective particularly with UK policymakers and industry folk - I can have risk concerns received better if I signal that I'm pro-progress, not irrationally risk-averse or fear-mongering, and can hint at a reasonably sophisticated understanding of what these technologies entail and what benefits they can be expected to bring.
I would add a small caution on "astronomical stakes". It works very well in some rhetoric-friendly public speaking/writing settings (and I've used it), but for certain individuals and audiences it can produce a bit of a knee-jerk negative reaction as being a grandiose, slightly self-important perspective (perhaps this applies more in Europe than in the US though, where the level of public rhetoric is a notch or two lower).