What legal ways do people make a profit that produce the largest net loss in utility?

This is an offshoot of a thread I made earlier, but which wasn't eliciting the sort of responses I'd hoped for.

So let me pose a clearer question with less potential to get people on watchlists.

What legal ways of making a profit are the most anti-altruistic, the most damaging to society, the opposite of effective altruism in result. 

I am using utility loosely. The answers need not be given from a utilitarian perspective at all, but instead merely deal with any means of making a profit that seems to you clearly wretched, and such that the world would be better if nobody participated in it.

I'd also like to emphasize that these things should be legal. There are some obviously wretched illegal businesses that would top the list otherwise. If something is legal but only in a particular jurisdiction, then you should only discuss it within the context of the jurisdiction where it is legal.

If it's a grey area, go for it, but extra points for society-harming enterprises definitely legal in both the letter an the spirit of the law.

This is NOT about whether the enterprise in question should be illegal, just whether it causes a net loss of utility (deal with counterfactuals however you see fit).

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Obvious example: selling cigarettes.

The cigarette is the deadliest artefact in the history of human civilisation. [...] Cigarettes cause about one death per million smoked³⁵ with a latency of about 25 years, which is why the 6 trillion smoked in 1990 will cause about 6 million deaths in 2015. [...] One-third or one-quarter of those deaths will be from lung cancer; about one every 15 or 20 s. [...] Cigarette companies make about a penny in profit for every cigarette sold, or about US$10 000 for every million cigarettes purchased. Since there is one death for every million cigarettes sold (or smoked), a tobacco manufacturer will make about US$10 000 for every death caused by their products.

Presumably there are even worse legal ways to make a profit, but this sets a nicely unambiguous lower bound, I think.

A lot of industries are going to look really bad if you only score one side of the ledger. Given that a huge number of people continue to smoke and enjoy it, despite knowing the negative implications for their health it seems reasonable to assume that tobacco companies supply the world with a great deal of utility, in addition to the lung cancer.

Enjoy it? Or want it because they're addicted? What we want and what we enjoy are not guaranteed to be aligned.

As someone who occasionally smokes while not being addicted to it: it is definitely enjoyable for people.

I smoke cigars once every couple years, and they're genuinely nice. Never tried cigarettes, but I'd imagine they're possible to enjoy. I know a couple folks who are not addicted and smoke recreationally once in a while.

A lot of industries are going to look really bad if you only score one side of the ledger.

Absolutely. However.

Given that a huge number of people continue to smoke

While that's obviously true...

and enjoy it,

...I think that's misleading. While smokers like and presumably enjoy the relief cigarettes provide from cravings, I doubt that at reflective equilibrium they'd want to be smokers, or would approve of their smoking. When samples of smokers in Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia were surveyed.pdf), about 90% agreed with the proposition that if they could live their lives again they would not start smoking, and a clear majority (67% to 82%, depending on the country) reported an intention to quit within the next year. In Gallup polls, most US smokers say they believe they're addicted to cigarettes, and most say they'd like to give up the habit. The CDC reports that in 2010, 43% of US adults who usually smoked cigarettes daily actually did stop smoking for multiple days because they were trying to quit.

despite knowing the negative implications for their health

Not true in general. Another paper based on data from that four-country survey tells us that "[a]bout 10% or more of smokers did not believe that smoking causes heart disease. Over 20% and 40% did not believe smoking causes stroke and impotence, respectively."

it seems reasonable to assume that tobacco companies supply the world with a great deal of utility, in addition to the lung cancer.

I remain extremely sceptical, not only because of the evidence I summarize above, but also because of economic, philosophical & cognitive considerations of the sort LW likes:

  • Tobacco manufacturers, in effect, value a life at ~$10k. This is far less than other estimates of the monetary value of a life, at least in developed countries. Is everybody else effectively over-valuing lives, or are tobacco companies effectively under-valuing them?

  • I can apply the reversal test by asking myself whether humanity would be better off if many more people smoked. Or: would humanity be worse off if cigarettes had never been invented? Or: if cigarettes had only just been invented, would it be a good idea to subsidize their production & distribution to get them into the public's hands faster? Intuitively, a "yes" answer to these questions seems strange to me.

  • Cognitive bias is ubiquitous, and people's preferences over time are often muddles that don't cohere. In light of this, the fact that many people use/enjoy something isn't proof that it gives them positive net utility; and when that something dispenses an addictive chemical, it's weaker evidence still. Various cues can trigger a craving for a cigarette, which is why people giving advice on quitting smoking routinely recommend avoiding cues that engender desires to smoke; that advice would not be necessary if people decided to light up on the basis of level-headed ratiocination.

All in all, there is a lot of evidence that revealed preference theory gives us the wrong answer when applied to smoking. Most smokers say they regret taking up the habit, are addicted to it, would like to quit, or intend to quit; many have already tried to quit; many smokers cannot identify all of smoking's potential health implications; applying revealed preference theory to tobacco manufacturers instead of smokers suggests manufacturers value customers' lives suspiciously cheaply; calling on intuition by imagining counterfactual scenarios suggests that cigarettes aren't a boon to humanity; and people's actions are known to correlate imperfectly with their goals, and indeed their desires & decisions to smoke are influenced by sensory cues which would not enter into a rational cost-benefit calculation.

The most parsimonious explanation of these observations, in my judgement, is the mainstream one: the downsides of cigarettes massively outweigh the upsides; people typically begin to smoke cigarettes because of a temporary failure to adequately weigh costs against benefits; and people continue smoking because they become addicted to nicotine, and condition themselves to associate the paraphernalia & physical motions of smoking with nicotine self-administration.

...I think that's misleading. While smokers like and presumably enjoy the relief cigarettes provide from cravings, I doubt that at reflective equilibrium they'd want to be smokers, or would approve of their smoking. When samples of smokers in Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia were surveyed, about 90% agreed with the proposition that if they could live their lives again they would not start smoking, and a clear majority (67% to 82%, depending on the country) reported an intention to quit within the next year. In Gallup polls, most US smokers say they believe they're addicted to cigarettes, and most say they'd like to give up the habit. The CDC reports that in 2010, 43% of US adults who usually smoked cigarettes daily actually did stop smoking for multiple days because they were trying to quit.

There is a lot of moralizing around smoking and I suspect those numbers are inflated. It's like if you call people up and ask them if they recycle or plan on voting. People give answers that they think others want to hear: that's not the same as reflective equilibrium. Also, the fact that people are interested in quitting doesn't have anything to do with whether or not it is pleasurable. It's very pleasurable, which is why people start and continue. They often want to stop because they know that it causes cancer. But they still derive pleasure from it.

Not true in general. Another paper based on data from that four-country survey tells us that "[a]bout 10% or more of smokers did not believe that smoking causes heart disease. Over 20% and 40% did not believe smoking causes stroke and impotence, respectively."

So up to 90% of smokers know some of the less well-publicized health risks? The numbers for lung cancer and emphysema must approach 100%. Don't cherry pick your evidence.

As to the rest of your comment: I'm not claiming cigarettes are a boon to humanity. The question was what ways of making a profit cause the largest loss of utility and I was objecting to an answer that failed to consider the actual value created by an industry.

This would likely be true of many other (hard) drugs if there had been a history of legally selling them instead of nipping their markets in the bud. In fact, this would probably be true of wireheading too if it was practical, and ultimately, orgasmium. Willing to bite that bullet?

Huh? Jack said that there two sides to the ledger with respect to tobacco. He didn't say which side would necessarily prevail in this case. Furthermore, there is no reason why the side that's stronger for one drug is necessarily stronger for another.

End of life treatment.

Extending the literally worst part of most people's lives for as long as you can, to the tune of over 20% of medical spending in the US.

Gold mining. Adding marginal ounces of gold to world supply adds very little utility because gold can be pretty much endlessly reused and there is plenty of it around that has already been mined. Central banks of fiat currencies sit on many years supply for no particularly good reason. Meanwhile, the industry consumes $billions annually of real resources (like fossil fuels and capital equipment) and produce pollution and environmental damage.

Isn't the underlying problem gold hoarding, then, and not gold mining? (If gold were as cheap as copper, what would we do with it that we don't do already?)

(If gold were as cheap as copper, what would we do with it that we don't do already?)

Are you asking what uses would humanity intensify and employ even more gold for than we already do now, or what entirely new uses (which are currently uneconomical or have not been discovered) we would employ gold for? Because at least for the former, there's a variety of uses for gold: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold#Medicine (and scroll down for further uses).

If gold were as cheap as copper, what would we do with it that we don't do already?

A lot, actually. Gold is very ductile and completely impervious to corrosion, just to mention the first two characteristics that came to mind.

I recently read Peter Leeson's paper, Better Off Stateless: Somalia Before and After Government Collapse, which argues that Somalia's government was so awful that anarchy was actually better in most of the ways we care about. It has an example of a profit-making enterprise with negative value:

Under government, a great deal of Somali production was military hardware that citizens did not consume. In fact, to the extent that this hardware was used to suppress the Somali population, this sizeable portion of pre-1991 GDP was actually negative value added from the perspective of citizens’ welfare

...

[Military spending] left few resources for investment in public goods, like education, health, or transportation infrastructure...[In 1990,] government spent less than one percent of GDP on economic and social services, while military and administration consumed 90 percent of the state’s total recurrent expenditure

So, weapons manufacturing for an evil regime seems like a candidate for effective malice.

Your conclusion is probably true. But your Leeson quote is comparing the percentage of GDP that goes to things he wants to the percentage of the state's recurrent expenditure that is military spending. Those numbers are not even enough to distinguish Barre from for example a government that just defends the people against external enemies and otherwise lets everyone handle their own affairs.

Oh, thanks for pointing that out! I'd not noticed he switched from GDP to the government budget; I'd been thinking it was all the government budget.

One possibility is computer games, e.g. I've certainly lost a good chunk of hours to the game Diablo. Modern things like Farmville seem especially pernicious. [This is not to be construed as all gaming is bad, etc.]

The problem with vice-type industries like gambling, cigarettes, and junk food is that one can make a reasonable argument that the users are deriving some kind of utility from gambling, smoking, and stuffing their faces with Cheetos. How do you measure utility? If it's strictly in terms of WTP (willingness-to-pay), then vice doesn't seem to be such a good candidate, you need to look at industries where there is an element of force or fraud, but not so extreme that the industry is banned.

Also one needs to distinguish between utility at an individual level and utility at a societal level. In arms race type situations, things which have a lot of utility at an individual level have very little utility when you look at things from the perspective of the entire universe of consumers.

That said, my vote is for higher education. At an individual level, lots of bright people go deep into debt and waste the best years of their lives because they are led to believe they will get good jobs which never materialize. At a societal level, a large portion of higher education is basically arms-racing, also known as credential inflation.

One could object that most higher education is performed by non-profitmaking institutions, but I think that is a legalistic limit on the definition of "profit" which is not true to the spirit of the question. Universities and professional schools generally do very well and pay their senior management very handsomely.

Your question makes me think of what economists call negative externalities. Wikipedia has a list of them

Homeopathy and naturopathic health cures. The only argument for these is that they work as well as a placebo.

Cosmetics and jewelery. These are particularly expensive mate attraction and social standing boosters.

Lobbying for government handouts/boons/subsidies. These have the potential to have net utility, but in many cases do not.

Monopoly businesses. Net loss of utility through inefficiency.

And finally, an overarching overemphasis on reliability. By declaring that 'failure is not an option', we spend vastly more resources than if we were to simply accept failure as an option and properly handle the failure cases. The best direct examples of this come from information theory: it is almost always cheaper to add error correction to reduce the error rate on a channel, than it is to improve a channel to reduce the error rate without error correction.

Monopoly businesses. Net loss of utility through inefficiency.

However, increasing returns to scale may make a monopoly a more efficient producer than a non-monopoly. In those cases the efficiency loss due to the lack of competition may be more than cancelled out by the efficiency gain from exploiting returns to scale.

"Monopoly businesses" is a rather broad category. And "net loss" compared to what? Compared to if they were operating differently, or compared to if they weren't operating at all?

Are we trying to maximize profit or utility loss?

Getting governments to change laws to protect your profits. A classic example of this is taxi cartels, enforced by medallion systems - it's bad for cabbies, astonishingly bad for users, not great for new entrants to the system(and bankruptcy-inducing if they ever unwind the system), but the guys who paid a hundred bucks for a medallion in 1950 and sell them for half a million today earned a gargantuan profit for no good reason except regulatory capture.

Operating casinos? They're fairly harmless to most people, but gambling addiction has destroyed people's lives.

Operating casinos? They're fairly harmless to most people, but gambling addiction has destroyed people's lives.

If you donated the profits to an effective charity, would running a casino be a suitable career for an Effective Altruist?

I don't even remotely see how this is a net negative. Factory farms produce incredible utility through specialization and optimization.