If I wanted to run an experiment to test how susceptible to scams the LW community actually was, this is exactly how I would do it.

Please note, in most versions of such scams the perpetrator does not actually send money (as in step 1 in the OP). Instead they use some combination of fake checks (yes, printed checks!), fake "payment confirmation" emails or fake websites along with social engineering and time pressure, to make the victim think money has been sent, in the hope that they will "refund" the overpayment before realising the initial payment was not real.

So if you're reading the OP and thinking "I can just collect the money in step 1 and then ignore the refund request" (whether planning to donate yourself, or even keep it), it's not likely to work out either.

Gotta give props to them for steelmanning their marks. Leswrong cant be the most gullible user base.

I was messaged by and responded to both. I suspect they're different people.

I also am not sure they're scams in the traditional sense. An employer match is the sort of thing that encourages this sort of thinking:

Whether or not this is within the letter of a match policy depends on the specific policy, but it's typically against the spirit and recommended against by Double the Donation. So even if there is no lurking chargeback, I would caution against this as burning the commons for short-term gain.

Also, if you have a strange story, keep Robin Hanson's recent Facebook post in mind:

If someone ever wants to give me $1M+ out of the blue, I hope they'll do more than send me an email w/o phone number I could call to confirm

Keeping that in mind, so far hans_jonsson seems legit. (I've only put a moderate amount of effort into verifying his claims.)

I and some of my friends have gotten emails from scammers who say they want to buy several paintings from my artist website, but are moving and want to use a bank check- or something similar. What I have done is reply that I will only accept payments through PayPal. Then I never hear from them again. Bitcoins would also work. The problem with testing it out by accepting a check or Bank order and depositing it in case it is for real is that you will get hit by a hefty fee from the bank if it bounces.

After the Nigerian space scam, the Nigerian rationalist scam. The first was surreal, but this... chapeau.

I was surprised to see mention of MIRI and Existential Risk. That means that they did a little research. Without that, I'd be >99% sure it was a scam.

I wonder if this hints at their methodology. Assuming it is a scam, I'd guess they find small but successful charities, then find small tight-knit communities organized around them and target those communities. Broad, catch-all nets may catch a few gullible people, but if enough people have caught on then perhaps a more targeted approach is actually more lucrative?

Really, it's a shame to see this happen even if no one here fell for it, because now we're all a little less likely to be receptive to weird requests/offers. I suspect it's useful for EAs to be able to make random requests of specific people. For example, I can imagine needing a couple hours or days of consulting work from a domain expert. In that situation, I'd be tempted to PM someone knowledgeable in that area, and offer to pay them for some consulting work on the side.

I can actually think of 2 instances where this community has done things like this out in the open (not PM), so it wouldn't surprise me if there are occasional private transactions. (I'd link to examples, but I'd rather not help a potential scammer improve on their methods.) Perhaps a solution would be to route anything that looks suspicious through Bitcoin, so that the transaction can't be cancelled? I wouldn't want to add trivial inconveniences to non-suspicious things, though.

Thanks for noting this.

We have a pretty stupid banking system if you can cancel a transaction after the target has had time to make a transaction back to you. Or it should be straitghforward and fee-less to cancel that second transaction as a consequence.

1. You might want to repost this to Discussion if your intention is for the thread to get as much visibility as possible.

2. I haven't looked at facebook today but this could be a good thing to repost to the facebook group.

Surely, as rationalists, we should do a controlled test to determine if these are scams? This will require some blindly chosen users to respond in a variety of different ways, some of whom should go through with the possible scam, and report the results.

EDIT: I think it's time to come clean. No, I am not the scammer, but this post wasn't serious. I'm rather surprised anyone thought it could be, to be honest!

My referenced explanation was based on the explanation of the concept at http://money.stackexchange.com/questions/67941/scam-or-real-a-woman-from-facebook-apparently-needs-my-bank-account-to-send-mon

Has there ever been any investigation to their identity?