But you would also punish accurate guessers if the average guess is too low.

However, imagine if the typical mind fallacy was correct. The employers could instead ask "what do you think the percentage of employees who have stolen from their job is?"

To be honest, this is a perfect example of what is so off-putting about this community. This method is simply socially wrong - it works against both the people who stole, and people who had something stolen from, who get penalized for the honest answer and, if such methods are to be more widely employed, are now inclined to second-guess and say "no, I don't think anyone steals" (and yes, this method is employed to some extent, subconsciously at least). The idea parasitizes on the social contract that is human language, with the honest naivete of the asocial. It's as if a Dutch town was building a dike and someone was suggesting that anyone who needs materials for repairing the house should just take them from that weird pile in the sea. The only reason such method can work, is because others have been losing a little here and there to maintain some trust necessary for effective communication.

Actually, that's Yvain's post, not mine...

As I'm wont to do, I was thinking about how to make that theory pay rent. It occurred to me that this could definitely be exploitable. If the typical mind fallacy is correct, we should be able to have it go the other way; we can derive information about a person's proclivities based on what they think about other people.

Yep! This is actually a standard method: ask people to estimate what they think other people do. A version of this is the 'Bayesian truth serum' trick.

This wouldn't reward people who don't steal because they don't want to, but only those so naive that the thought of stealing doesn't occur to them.

I'm not too comfortable with the idea of rewarding ignorance and punishing cynicism.

Great insight! Unsurprisingly, you're not the first. To my knowledge though, this method doesn't have a standard name and isn't prevalent. Predictions about others might give more information, but are still manipulable and hard to interpret when comparing respondents to each other. Did this person say lots of others cheat because they cheat or because they are bad with probabilities?

Alternatively, if you have a question with a single underlying answer, predictions about opinions are potentially useful for filtering out bias. This is the idea behind Prelec's Bayesian truth serum. Respondents maximize their payments from the system by being honest, and the group with the highest average scores tends be correct.

See http://measureofdoubt.com/2011/06/16/bayesian-truth-serum/

Also, a "rent-paying" belief in EY's sense does not necessarily give rise to useful applications, it just has observational consequences, i.e. predicts something different than its negation.

We see the world, not the way it is, but the way we are.

Talmud

This seems like a ridiculously transparent move. If I knew no psychological theory whatsoever, it would still be obvious that "What do you think the percentage of employees who have stolen from their job is?" is a question primarily designed to test how likely I am to steal (and also possibly testing how likely I am to trust other employees at my future job).

I would try to figure out the lowest number I can write down without it being obvious that it's the lowest number I can write down. Of course I am still going off of my experience here to estimate what sort of numbers are low. But at that point you are rewarding people for being good at lying.

An example of this used as a textbook signal for abusive relationships is that people who frequently accuse partners of being unfaithful without evidence are generally those who are cheating themselves or have cheated in the past.

I remember reading a livejournal post by a guy (diagnosed with Asperger's Syndrome) about coming up against these kind of questions in job interviews. The explanation on that post is that people who have imaginary peer pressure against stealing are less likely to steal.

http://bradhicks.livejournal.com/144425.html

Eg, most employers ask "have you ever stolen from a job before," and have to deal with misreporting because nobody in their right mind will say yes. However, imagine if the typical mind fallacy was correct. The employers could instead ask "what do you think the percentage of employees who have stolen from their job is?" and know that the applicants who responded higher than average were correspondingly more likely to steal, and the applicants who responded lower than average were less likely to cheat. It could cut through all sorts of social desirability distortion effects. You couldn't get the exact likelihood, but it would give more useful information than you would get with a direct question.

An employer asking either of those questions of me would drastically increase the chance that I would steal from them. Priming, conveying that the norm for people in my situation is some amount of stealing, etc. At very least it would prompt me to speculate on how best to steal if I happened to want to do so.

I might be remembering this wrong, but I read somewhere that if you want to get someone's opinion about something, you should ask them what their friends think about the topic. The reasoning was that people will quite obviously try to guess your password if you ask them a question directly, but their close friends are much more likely to be closer to their true opinion than they let on, so you should ask them what their friends think about the topic. I can't find where I read this at so take it with a grain of salt (anyone with better Google-fu able to find what I'm talking about?).

If true, this would seem to be a not-as-fallacious application of the typical mind fallacy.

The employers could instead ask "what do you think the percentage of employees who have stolen from their job is?" and know that the applicants who responded higher than average were correspondingly more likely to steal, and the applicants who responded lower than average were less likely to cheat. It could cut through all sorts of social desirability distortion effects.

1. The method will work until it becomes broadly applied and thus well known. After that the correlation would disappear. (Related to Goodhart's law.)
2. In the meantime, the group who profits are not the non-thieves in general, but the non-thieves who are most biased in the typical mind fallacy direction. I disapprove of methods which reward bias.
3. The method itself is dishonest communication. Universally applied it would be a Nash equilibrium (at least until Goodhart's law strikes back) since each employer individually is better off applying the method, but dishonest communication is less effective and thus the situation would be Pareto suboptimal.

Obviously, none of the above means that your suggested method doesn't work, but nevertheless I wish people don't use it.

You couldn't get the exact likelihood, but it would give more useful information than you would get with a direct question.

What do you mean by "the exact likelihood"?

I would suggest that an answer to "what do you think the percentage of employees who have stolen.." is a proxy question for, "just exactly how socially unacceptable to you is stealing from your employer"? It relates to, basically, your own levels of altruism, and what you perceive the local altruism levels to be. If you see that everyone around you is being altruistic, you feel a basic urge to keep the clean environment up, while if everyone around you is cheating, then you are less likely to keep up your own altruism.

I've had my bike stolen a few times. After getting a particularly nice bike stolen, I now am always on the lookout for unlocked bikes, and when I see one, the urge is most definitely there to grab it - 'retribution', if you will, for my own stolen bike. I don't go through with it, but the possibility is a lot more present in my mind than if I had never had a bike stolen from me.