What should normal people do?

What should a not-very-smart person do?  Suppose you know a not-very-smart person (around or below average intelligence).  S/he read about rationality, has utilitarian inclinations, and wants to make the world better.  However, s/he isn't smart enough to discover new knowledge in most fields, or contribute very much to a conversation of more knowledgeable experts on a given topic.  Let's assume s/he has no exceptional talents in any area.

How do you think a person like that could best use his/her time and energy?  What would you tell the person to do?  This person may be, compared to average LW readership, less capable of noticing the irrationality in his/her actions even if s/he wants to be rid of it, and less easily able to notice the flaws in a bad argument.  S/he may never be able to deeply understand why certain arguments are correct, certain scientific facts have to be the way they are, and telling him/her to be unsure or sure about anything seems dangerous if s/he doesn't really understand why.  

My practical advice might be:

1) If you want to give to charity, follow GiveWell recommendations.  

2) Learn about the basic biases, and commit to resisting them in your own life. 

3)  Follow advice that has been tested, that correctly predicts a positive outcome.  If a hypothesis is untestable (there's an unsensible dragon in your garage) or doesn't predict anything (fire comes from phlogiston in combustable substances), or is tested and demonstrably false (god will smite you if you say it doesn't exist), don't waste time and energy on it.  If you want to improve, look for tested methods that have significant positive results relevant to the area of interest.  Similarly, if a person regularly gives you advice that does not lead to good outcomes, stop following it, and if someone gives advice that leads to good outcomes, start paying attention even if you like that person less.  

 

At a more general level, my thoughts are tentative, but might include basic LW tenets such as:

1) Don't be afraid of the truth, because you're already enduring it.

2) If all the experts in a field agree on something, they might be wrong, but you are extremely unlikely to be better at uncovering the truth, so follow their advice, which might appear to conflict with...

3) Don't trust deep wisdom.  Use Occam's razor, think about simple, basic reasons something might be true (this seems good for religion and moral issues, bad for scientific ideas and understanding)

4) If you find yourself flinching away from an idea, notice that, and give it extra attention.  

Note:  I mean this as a serious, and hopefully non-insulting question.  Most people are intellectually near-average or below-average, and I have not seen extensive discussion on how to help them lead happier lives that make the world a better place. 

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Here's my advice: always check Snopes before forwarding anything.

I wish there was a checkbox in email sites and clients "check incoming messages against known urban myths". Probably no harder to implement than the current automatic scam and spam filtering.

Do people actually still get those things? I have literally never recieved one of those chain letters or story-forwardings.

Then there would a next level in arms race. Just like spammers used to add "this is not a spam" disclaimers, people who create hoax mails would add something like: "When you send this e-mail to your friends, ask them later whether they received it, because is removing criticism against them from internet."

Or the hoaxes would be sent as attached images.

Just wanted to point out an implicit and not necessarily correct assumption, leading to poor-quality advice:

Suppose you know a not-very-smart person (around or below average intelligence)

It seems that you assume that intelligence is one-dimensional. In my experience, while there is a correlation, most people are smarter in some areas than in others. For example, a mathematical genius may be incapable of introspection and have to interest in rational thinking outside math. Let's take your example:

S/he read about rationality, has utilitarian inclinations, and wants to make the world better. However, s/he isn't smart enough to discover new knowledge in most fields, or contribute very much to a conversation of more knowledgeable experts on a given topic. Let's assume s/he has no exceptional talents in any area.

First, an "average person" does not read about rationality and has no "utilitarian inclinations". They often do want to make the world better if socially conditioned to do so by their church or by the TV commercials showing a sick child in the 3rd world whom you can save for a dollar a day or something. So, the person you describe is not "average".

Second, this "average person" might be (and likely is) intelligent in a way that does not show up on the IQ tests: he or she might be unusually good at running a corner store, or being a great parent, or whatever. Some of the talents may be latent, because they had no chance of being manifested. I would still call it "intelligence" by Eliezer's definition: ability to optimize the universe, or at least some small slice of it.

As a consequence, your advice is suspiciously indistinguishable from the one you'd give an "LW-smart" person. My inclination would be to find this person's area of aptitude and offer custom advice that plays to their strengths.

I would still call it "intelligence" by Eliezer's definition: ability to optimize the universe, or at least some small slice of it.

IIRC the optimization power has to be cross-domain according to his definition, otherwise Deep Blue would count as intelligent.

That doesn't seem to count as a problem with the above definition. Taboo "intelligent." Is Deep Blue an optimizing process that successfully optimizes a small part of the universe?

Yes.

Is it an optimizing process that should count as sentient for the purposes of having legal rights? Should we be worried about it taking over the world?

No.

More actionable rules might be better such as:

Wear a seat belt when driving. Save 10% of your income through your pension plan's index fund option. Don't smoke. Practice safe sex. Sign up for cryonics.

Wear a seat belt when driving.

Don't smoke.

Practice safe sex.

Safe bet. These significantly increase your life and health expectations at almost no cost.

Save 10% of your income through your pension plan's index fund option.

This heavily depends on your age, country, social level (which affects future discounting) and what not and is thus in its generality questionable.

Sign up for cryonics.

I don't know what kind of advice this is. Sure you are convinced that it may be right for you, but it is as far away from item 2) above as it can be.

From the standpoint of normal people cryonics is not very different from other afterlife memes and thus adding it to the list has the risk of descrediting (to normal people) the whole list.

It seems to me that the advice about Givewell has a lot of evidence behind it, but the rest of the advice doesn't have much evidence that it gives any benefit at all, for people of average intelligence or otherwise. It would be good to have a Givewell-like project that evaluated the costs and benefits of following various rationality advice.

a Givewell-like project that evaluated the costs and benefits of following various rationality advice

CFAR is kind of working along these lines.

Heck, just having some kind of metric to see whether people were following rationality advice would be a big step forward. We can get a visceral impression that someone is more or less formidable, and we can spot patterns of repeated mistakes, but we don't really have a good way of seeing the extent to which someone is applying rationality advice in their daily lives. (Of course this is just a restatement of the good old "Rationality Dojo" problem, one of the very first posts in the Sequences.) Paper tests don't really capture the ability to apply the lessons to real-world problems that people actually care about.

I have a fairly wide variety of friends. Here's some advice I find myself giving often, because it seems to cover a lot of what I think are the most common problems. The wording here isn't how I'd say it to them.

Health and lifestyle

  • Don't engage the services of any non-evidence based medical practitioner.
  • If you have a health problem, you're receiving treatment/advice, and not obviously improving, get a second opinion. And probably also a third. (I am not in the US)
  • Don't smoke cigarettes. If you already smoke cigarettes, buy an e-cigarette (like, right now), even if you're sure you'll never use it. Once you've bought it, do try to use it, even if you don't think you'll like it.
  • Always use barriers for vaginal and anal penetration outside a monogamous relationship
  • Use either barriers or hormonal birth control for p-in-v intercourse
  • If you or your partner is having non-monogamous sex, get STI tests twice a year
  • If you frequently feel depressed or anxious, see a psychologist who practices cognitive behavioural therapy. Do not see one who practices psychoanalysis (see "evidence based health care"). Expect to trial several psychologists before finding one who is a good fit for you (see: "if health care not working, seek second opinion").

Personal finance

  • Don't buy cars new. There's an established value-point for depreciation vs maintainence costs for cars. Use that.
  • Don't get a credit card
  • Don't take personal loans unless the interest is dominated by the cost of having no liquidity (e.g. eviction)
  • If you can't maintain a monthly budget, give yourself a weekly budget. If you still can't maintain a weekly budget, give yourself a daily budget. A budget over a shorter time period is much less convenient --- but failing to maintain a budget at all and going broke is less convenient still.
  • Never gamble, including playing the lottery
  • Don't invest in individual stocks, or pay someone else to invest your money in individual stocks.
  • Comply with your local tax laws, including filing your taxes on time. Know that people smarter than you are being employed to catch tax cheats who are also smarter than you. You will likely lose.

Career

  • Avoid "winner takes all" professions, e.g. sports, music, academia in fields with no industrial application, etc
  • Judge potential careers by expected value, not best or worst possible outcome. Look at median salaries and working conditions.
  • Only enrol in tertiary/graduate education with a specific career outcome in mind
  • Recognise the true cost of tertiary degrees, in opportunity cost as well as course fees. e.g. a full-fee-paid PhD program with a modest stipend is still enormously expensive
  • Recognise that reputational capital distorts labor markets. Teachers are paid low because they're well respected, not despite being well respected. The how-do-you-do value of having a well respected career is not that enduring, so it's probably over-valued. It's better to avoid careers with excess reputational capital.
  • Consider careers in the allied health professions . These professions have the best job security: the aging population ensures rising demand, they must be performed locally, and most seem like unlikely targets for automation or disruption. They also offer lots of human contact, which many find produces good job satisfaction. But, because they don't require medical degrees, they are fairly neutral in reputational capital, so your peers don't just work themselves to death to win zero-sum positional games against you.

Law and the justice system

  • Avoid dominance contests. Learn to display submission readily, meekly and convincingly.
  • Regard police officers as people who have power over you. They do. Their power is broad, and not constrained by some set of written rules. If you challenge them to a dominance contest, you will likely lose. They will fuck you up. And even if you "win", it'll be a pyrrhic victory --- you'll still have been better off not getting into it in the first place.
  • Power is not moral authority. Someone may have real power over you, with no legitimate right to it.
  • Moral authority is not power. Even if you have the legitimate right to do something, someone may have the power to stop you.

Never gamble, including playing the lottery

Make that “never gamble large sums of money” -- spending €7 for a poker tournament with your friends isn't obviously worse than spending €7 on a movie ticket IMO.

I agree about pretty much all of the list -- and most of it is also good advice for pretty much all people, not just normal ones.

Don't get a credit card

Don't hold a credit balance on a credit card might be valid general advice. There are however many cases where the miles or cashback you can get through credit cards provide a valuable benefit.

It also builds a credit rating that might be valuable to get a mortage and given the tax reducted status of mortages for buying a home they aren't completely bad.

I don't think miles and cashback are the primary benefit of a credit card, although they're handy. A credit rating on the other hand is very important: at least in the US, finding housing (including apartment housing) is seriously complicated by having bad or no credit, and the same goes for buying vehicles or anything else customarily paid for on an installment plan. Making major purchases on credit is a good deal if you think hanging onto the money is worth more to you yearly than the APR, which isn't unlikely if you're investing; basically it's leverage.

If you find credit cards morally objectionable or are absent-minded enough not to always pay them off on time, can probably drop the card once you've been approved for an automotive loan or something comparably serious. I use mine to handle gas and certain other predictable expenses.

"Study rationality anyway. Work harder to make up for your lack of intelligence." I don't think most of LessWrong's material is out of reach of an average-intelligence person.

"Think about exactly what people mean by words when they use them; there are all kinds of tricks to watch out for involving subtle variations of a word's meaning." Read Yvain's "The Worst Argument in the World"..

"Don't fall for the sunk cost fallacy, which is what you're doing when you say 'This movie I'm watching sucks [absolutely, not just relative to what you'd expect for the cost], but I'm gonna keep watching, because I already payed to get in.'"

"Your brain loves to lie to you about the reason you want to do something. For example, maybe you're thinking about moving to a new job. You don't get along well with one of your current coworkers, but you don't think this is a good reason to get a new job, so you refuse to take that into consideration. Your brain makes a bigger deal of minor advantages of the new job to compensate. Learn to recognize these lies."

I don't think most of LessWrong's material is out of reach of an average-intelligence person.

Wasn't the average IQ here from the survey something like 130+?

These statements don't necessarily contradict each other. Even if average-intelligence people don't read Less Wrong, perhaps they could. Personally, I suspect it's more because of a lack of interest (and perhaps a constellation of social factors).

I bet the average LessWrong person has a great sense of humour and feels things more than other people, too.

Seriously, every informal IQ survey amongst a group/forum I have seen reports very high IQ. My (vague) memories of the LessWrong one included people who seemed to be off the scale (I don't mean very bright. I mean that such IQs either have never been given out in official testing rather than online tests, or possibly that they just can't be got on those tests and people were lying).

There's always a massive bias in self-reporting: those will only be emphasised on an intellectual website that starts the survey post by saying that LessWrongers are, on average, in the top 0.11% for SATs, and gives pre-packaged excuses for not reporting inconvenient results - "Many people would prefer not to have people knowing their scores. That's great, but please please please do post it anonymously. Especially if it's a low one, but not if it's low because you rushed the test", (my emphasis).

If there's a reason to be interested in average IQ beyond mutual ego-massage, I guess the best way would be to have an IQ test where you logged on as 'Less Wrong member X' and then it reported all the results, not just the ones that people chose to share. And where it revealed how many people pulled out halfway through (to avoid people bailing if they weren't doing well).

Selection bias - which groups and forums actually asked about IQ?

Your average knitting/auto maintenance/comic book forum probably has a lower average IQ but doesn't think to ask. And of course we're already selecting a little just by taking the figures off of web forums, which are a little on the cerebral side.

True. I don't think I can define the precise level of inaccuracy or anything. My point is not that I've detected the true signal: it's that there's too much noise for there to be a useful signal.

Do I think the average LessWronger has a higher IQ? Sure. But that's nothing remotely to do with this survey. It's just too flawed to give me any particularly useful information. I would probably update my view of LW intelligence more based on its existence than its results. In that reading the thread lowers my opinion of LW intellgence, simply because this forum is usually massively more rational and self-questioning than every other forum I've been on, which I would guess is associated with high IQ, and people taking the survey seriously is one of the clearest exceptions.

BTW, I'm not sure your assessments of knitting/auto maintenance/comic books/web forums are necessarily accurate. I'm not sure I have enough information on any of them to reasonably guess their intelligence. Forums are particularly exceptional in terms of showing amazing intelligence and incredible stupidity side by side.

If there's a reason to be interested in average IQ beyond mutual ego-massage, I guess the best way would be to have an IQ test where you logged on as 'Less Wrong member X' and then it reported all the results, not just the ones that people chose to share.

Would still suffer from selection effects. People that thought they might not do so well would be disinclined to do it, and people who knew they were hot shit would be extra inclined to do it. The phrase "anonymous survey" doesn't really penetrate into our status-aware hindbrains.

Wasn't the average IQ here from the survey something like 130+?

The average self-reported IQ.

If we really wanted to measure LWs collective IQ, I'd suggest using the education data as a proxy; we have fairly good information about average IQs by degree and major, and people with less educational history will likely be much less reticent to answer than those with a low IQ test result since there are so many celebrated geniuses who didn't complete their schooling.

The average tested IQ on the survey was about 125, which is close to my estimate of the true average IQ around here; I don't entirely trust the testing site that Yvain used, but I think it's skewing low, and that ought to counteract some of the reporting bias that I'd still expect to see.

125 is pretty much in line with what you'd expect if you assume that everyone here is, or is going to be, a four-year college graduate in math, philosophy, or a math-heavy science or engineering field (source). That's untrue as stated, of course, but we do skew that way pretty hard, and I'm prepared to assume that the average contributor has that kind of intellectual chops.

I think that's a fair assessment, although it might be because my guess was around 120 to start with. I never meant to say we're not smart around here, far from it, but I don't think we're all borderline geniuses either. It's important to keep perspective and very easy to overestimate yourself.

Play to your strengths; do what you're best at. You don't have to be best in the world at it for it to be valuable.

Good things about this advice are (a) it has a fairly-sound theory behind it (Comparative advantage), and (b) it applies whether or not you're smart, normal or dumb, so you don't get in to socially-destructive comparisons of intelligence.

Read Yvain's Epistemic Learned Helplessness. You can be convinced of anything by good arguing, but forewarned is forearmed.

When in doubt, ask. The stackexchange network is great to get answers to questions.

skeptics stackexchange is for example great to get answers to general questions.
If you encouter a significant claim on the internet it's often a useful website to check. Recently I came about the claim that batteries follow something like Moore's law. I headed over to skeptics stackexchange and post a question.

Another useful habit is Anki. Especially if you don't trust your brain to remember information on it's own, let Anki help you.

look for tested methods that have significant positive results relevant to the area of interest

This part of advice needs to be more specific. For example which "positive results" should be trusted and which not. Because everyone who wants to sell you something will tell you about "positive results".

I'm not sure how much raw intelligence matters. If a person who's average intelligence stays with a problem which doesn't get much attention for 10 years I see no reason why they shouldn't be able to contribute something to it.

Being intellectual means staying with intellectual problems over years instead of letting them drop because a new television series is more important.

Since IQ correlates with practically everything, including conscientousness and the ability to concentrate, I'm not convinced this advice is helpful. The average human may be plain unable to meaningfully stick with a problem for ten years. (That is, to actually productively work on the problem daily, not just have it on the to-do list and load up the data or whatever every so often.) I fear the LW bubble gives most people here a rather exaggerated estimate of the "average"; your median acquaintance is likely one or two standard deviations above the real population average, and that already makes a big difference.

The average human may be plain unable to meaningfully stick with a problem for ten years. (That is, to actually productively work on the problem daily, not just have it on the to-do list and load up the data or whatever every so often.)

I don't think working every day on the problem is necessary. For a lot of problems visiting them monthly does a lot.

If you want to formalize the approach it's something like: I have learned something new X, how does X related to problem Y_1 to Y_n?

If you inform yourself widely, I think you have the potential to contribute. Most people aren't intellectual because they don't invest any effort in being intellectual.

Since IQ correlates with practically everything, including conscientousness

Given that papers get published with titles like Why is Conscientiousness negatively correlated with intelligence? I don't think that's the case.

I find your third point for practical advice to be significantly dis-charitable to someone of average intelligence. There are people that miss obvious patterns like, "This person gives bad advice," but I think people of average intellect are already well equipped to notice simple patterns like that.

I don't believe this is a coherent set of general advice that can be given here. What specific details and methods of rationality any given "average" person is missing, and what specific cognitive biases they suffer from most severely will vary too widely to get good coverage with a few short points. My approach would be to work on an individual basis to determine what's causing the most problems for each person and address them accordingly. This may seem highly inefficient, but remember that success stories are told and retold virally as each new person has experiences that confirm the wisdom:

That sounds a lot like what I went through. What really helped me was...

There are far too many average people for me to expect a single centralized fault will be considerably effective.

One of the most important steps to becoming more rational for an average person would be to disentangle themselves from the default goals / values imposed by society or their peers. This would free up a lot of time for figuring out their own goals and developing relevant skills.

An average person could go far with instrumental rationality techniques like those taught at CFAR. Exercises like goal factoring and habit training don't require a high capacity for abstraction, only willingness to be explicit about one's motivations. For accumulating factual knowledge, spaced repetition software could be very useful.

My 3 pieces of advice, for someone already convinced that something fairly accurate is going on, would be:

1) Try to sign up for cryonics before dying.

2) When donating to charity, use the recommendations of an organization like GiveWell ("the practical approach"), or donate to a charity working on existential risk ("the 'taking ideas seriously' approach).

3) (My one best piece of rationality advice) Other people have good reasons for their actions, according to themselves. That doesn't mean you'll think they're good once you find them out - but it does mean you should try to find them out.