The quantum Russian roulette is a game where 16 people participate. Each of them gets a unique four digit binary code assigned and deposits $50000. They are put to deep sleep using some drug. The organizer flips a quantum coin four times. Unlike in Russian roulette, here only the participant survives whose code was flipped. The others are executed in a completely painless manner. The survivor takes all the money.

Let us assume that none of them have families or very good friends. Then the only result of the game is that the guy who wins will enjoy a much better quality of life. The others die in his Everett branch, but they live on in others. So everybody's only subjective experience will be that he went into a room and woke up $750000 richer.

Being extremely spooky to our human intuition, there are hardly any trivial objective reasons to oppose this game under the following assumptions:

  1. Average utilitarianism
  2. Near 100% confidence in the Multiple World nature of our universe
  3. It is possible to kill someone without invoking any negative experiences.

The natural question arises whether it could be somehow checked that the method really works, especially that the Multiple World Hypothesis is correct. At first sight, it looks impossible to convince anybody besides the participant who survived the game.

However there is a way to convince a lot of people in a few Everett branches: You make a one-time big announcement in the Internet, TV etc. and say that there is a well tested quantum coin-flipper, examined by a community consisting of the most honest and trusted members of the society. You take some random 20 bit number and say that you will flip the equipment 20 times and if the outcome is the same as the predetermined number, then you will take it as a one to million evidence that the Multiple World theory works as expected. Of course, only people in the right branch will be convinced. Nevertheless, they could be convinced enough to make serious thoughts about the viability of quantum Russian roulette type games.

My question is: What are the possible moral or logical reasons not to play such games? Both from individual or societal standpoints.

[EDIT] A Simpler version (single player version of the experiment): The single player generates lottery numbers by flipping quantum coins. Sets up an equipment that kills him in sleep if the generated numbers don't coincide with his. In this way, he can guarantee waking up as a lottery millionaire.

 

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Here's a funny reformulation of your argument: if you live in a quantum world where deaths are swift and painless, it makes sense to bet a lot of money on the assertion that you will stay alive. This incentivizes many other people to bet on your death and try hard to kill you. The market takes this into account, so your payoff for staying alive grows very high. Sounds like a win-win situation all around!

That said, at root it's just a vanilla application of quantum immortality which people may or may not believe in (the MWI doesn't seem to logically imply it). For a really mindblowing quantum trick see the Elitzur-Vaidman bomb tester. For a deeper exploration of the immortality issue, see Quantum suicide reality editing.

For a really mindblowing quantum trick see the Elitzur-Vaidman bomb tester.

Interesting.

Consider a collection of bombs, some of which are duds. The bombs are triggered by a single photon. Usable bombs will absorb the photon and detonate. Dud bombs will not absorb the photon. The problem is how to separate the usable bombs from the duds.
...
A solution is for the sorter to use a mode of observation known as counterfactual measurement
...
In 1994, Anton Zeilinger, Paul Kwiat, Harald Weinfurter, and Thomas Herzog actually performed an equivalent of the above experiment, proving interaction-free measurements are indeed possible.

See also:

As I understand it, the only way to have a known-live undetonated bomb in this branch is to cause it to actually detonate it in other branches.

The Elitzur-Vaidman is really amazing: more sophisticated than my scenario. However it is quite different and not directly related.

The Quantum suicide is much more similar, in fact my posting derived from an almost identical idea that I also posted on lesswrong. I got that idea independently when reading that thread.

The reason I find the quantum roulette thought experiment interesting is that it is much less speculative. The payoff is clear and the in can easily be motivated and performed by current technology.

Yes, that last point is important. Too bad we won't get volunteers from LW, because we're all kinda friends and would miss each other.

If we all did it together though, the worlds we left behind would be like some sort of geeky Atlas Shrugged dystopia. Heh.

I don't think my game is a simple reformulation of quantum immortality.

I don't even believe in quantum immortality. At least it is not implied in any way by MWI.

It is perfectly possible that you have increasing amounts of "quantum luck" in a lot of branches, but finally you die in each of the branches, because the life-supporting miracles increase your life less and less, and when they hit the resolution of time, you simply run out of them and die for sure.

If you think time is continuous, then think of the Zenon paradox to see why the infinite sum of such pieces can add to a finite amount of time gained.

However there is a way to convince a lot of people in a few Everett branches: You make a one-time big announcement in the Internet, TV etc. and say that there is a well tested quantum coin-flipper, examined by a community consisting of the most honest and trusted members of the society. You take some random 20 bit number and say that you will flip the equipment 20 times and if the outcome is the same as the predetermined number, then you will take it as a one to million evidence that the Multiple World theory works as expected. Of course, only people in the right branch will be convinced. Nevertheless, they could be convinced enough to make serious thoughts about the viability of quantum Russian roulette type games.

I vaguely remember this being discussed here before, and people deciding it wouldn't work. Before the coin-flipper is run, you have a 1/2^20 chance of seeing your number come up, whether many worlds is true or false. That means that seeing the number come up doesn't tell you anything about whether MW is true or not. It just tells you you're extremely lucky: either lucky enough that the coin-flipper got a very specific number, or lucky enough to have ended up in the very specific universe where the flipper got that number.

I don't really buy that argument. It would apply to any measurement scenario. You could say in the two-mirror experiment: "These dots on the screen don't mean a thing, we just got extremely lucky." Which is of course always a theoretical possibility.

Of course you can derive that you were extremely lucky, but also that "someone got extremely lucky" [SGEL]. If you start with some arbitrary estimates e.g. P(SWI)=0.5 and P(MWI)=0.5 and try to update P(MWI) by using Bayesian inference, you get:

By P(SGEL|SWI)=1/2^20

P(SGEL|MWI)=1

You get:

P(MWI|SGEL)=P(SGEL|MWI)P(MWI)/(P(SGEL|SWI)P(SWI)+P(SGEL|MWI)P(MWI))=

0.5/((1/2^20)0.5 + 0.5)=1/(1+1.2^20) ~ 1-1/2^20

Well, yes, but we can't peek into other Everett branches to check them for lucky people.

I don't see why you wanted to. You could only increase P(MWI) by finding there any.

You take some random 20 bit number and say that you will flip the equipment 20 times and if the outcome is the same as the predetermined number, then you will take it as a one to million evidence that the Multiple World theory works as expected.

That doesn't convince anyone else; from their perspective, in Bayesian terms, the experiment has the same million-to-one improbability of producing this result, regardless of whether QTI is true, since they're not dying in the other worlds. From your perspective, you've ended up in a world where you experienced what feels like strong evidence of QTI being true, but you can never communicate this evidence to anyone else. If we hook up a doomsday device to the coinflipper, then in worlds where we survive, we can never convince aliens.

Do you really need Many Worlds for quantum suicide/immortality? How's a Single Big World (e.g. Tegmark's Level 1 universe) different? Since a Single Big World is infinite, there will be an infinite number of people performing quantum suicide experiments, and some of them will seem to be immortal.

It seems to me that there is no practical difference between living in Many Worlds vs a Single Big World.

Well, Many Worlds doesn't actually require infinity, which is a plus in my book. You can have a Many Worlds scenario with "only" (the number of discrete possible actions since the beginning of time) worlds, whereas a Single Big World that wasn't actually infinite would require further explanation.

If you assume 3, average utilitarianism says you should kill anyone who has below average utility, since that raises the average. So in the end you kill everyone except the one person who has the highest utility. There is no need for assumption 2 at all.

BTW, are you aware of any of the previous literature and discussion on quantum suicide and immortality?

See also http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/steven/?p=215

If you assume 3, average utilitarianism says you should kill anyone who has below average utility, since that raises the average. So in the end you kill everyone except the one person who has the highest utility.

You really need to also assume killing people doesn't decrease utility for those who are left, which usually doesn't work too well for humans...

Which is why we do not really believe in average utilitarianism...

It is possible to kill someone without invoking any negative experiences.

Average utilitarianism requires more, it requires that it is possible to have a policy of systematically killing most people that does not result in negative experiences. This does not seem meaningfully possible for any agents that are vaguely human, so this is a straw man objection to average utilitarianism, and a pretty bad one at that.

If the worlds in your MWI experiment are considered independent, you might as well do the same in a single deterministic world. Compare the expected utility calculations for one world and many-worlds: they'll look the same, you just exchange "many-worlds" with "possible worlds" and averaging with expectation. MWI is morally uninteresting, unless you do nontrivial quantum computation. Just flip a logical coin from pi and kill the other guys.

More specifically: when you are saying "everyone survives in one of the worlds", this statement gets intuitive approval (as opposed to doing the experiment in a deterministic world where all participants but one "die completely"), but there is no term in the expected utility calculation that corresponds to the sentiment.

MWI is morally uninteresting, unless you do nontrivial quantum computation.

I think that the intuition at steak here is something about continuity of conscious experience. The intuition that Christian might have, if I may anticipate him, is that everyone in the experiment will actually experience getting $750,000, because somehow the word-line of their conscious experience will continue only in the worlds where they do not die.

I think that, in some sense, this is a mistake, because it fundamentally rests upon a very very strong intuition that there exists a unique person who I will be in the future. This is an intuition that evolution programmed into us for obvious reasons: we are more likely to act like a good Could-Should-Would agent if we think that the benefits and costs associated with our actions will accrue to us rather than to some vague probability distribution over an infinite set of physically realized future continuations-of-me, with the property that whatever I do, some of them will die, and whatever I do, some of them will be rich and happy.

You can assign high negative utility to certain death.

You can assign high negative utility to certain death.

You can, but then you should also do so in the expected utility calculation, which is never actually done in most discussions of MWI in this context, and isn't done in this post. The problem is using MWI as rationalization for invalid intuitions.

I did it implicitly in the OP. Assuming that, you get a better expected value in the quantum scenario.

A logical coin flip be much more scary (and negative utility) assuming certain death for some of the participiants.

(I don't buy quantum immortality arguments. They resemble on Achilles-Turtle problem: Being rescued in shorter and shorter intervals does not imply being rescued for a fixed time.)

I think there will probably have to be some set of worlds in which the losers of the game are alive but near death (it really is necessary to specify the means by which they die). So this really is a gamble since participating means there is a very slight chance you will wake up, 50,000 dollars poorer and needing an ambulance. To figure out the overall average utility of the game one would need to include the possible worlds in which the killing mechanism fails. Average utility over the universal wave function would probably still go up, but there would be a few branches where average utility would go down, dramatically. So the answer it would depend on whether you were quantifying over the entire wave function or doing individual worlds.

Or were you ignoring that as part of the thought experiment?

EDIT: I just thought it all out and I think the probability of experiencing surviving the killing mechanism might be 5 in 6. See here. Basically, when calculating your future experience the worlds in which you survive take over the probability space of the worlds in which you don't survive such that, given about a 5 in 6 chance of your death there is actually about a 5 in 6 chance you experience losing and surviving since in the set of worlds in which you lose there is a 100% chance of experiencing one of the very few worlds in which you survive. This would make playing Quantum Russian roulette considerably stupider then playing regular Russian roulette unless you have a killing mechanism that can only fail by failing to do any damage at all.

With a similar technique you can solve any NP-Complete problem. Actually, you can solve much harder problems. For instance, you can minimize any function you have enough computing power to compute. You could apply this, for instance, to genetic algorithms, and arrive at the globally fittest solution. You could likewise solve for the "best" AI given some restraints, such as: find the best program less than 10000 characters long that performs best on a Turing test.

If mangled worlds is correct (and I understand it correctly), then sufficiently improbable events fail to happen at all. What kind of limit would this place on the problems you can solve with "quantum suicide voodoo"?

like it.

I'm developing a web game called 'quantum roulette' for the website of my upcoming feature Third Contact, and I happened on this thread.

the game will be at www.thirdcontactmovie.com at some point. You might find the film of interest too. Love the discussion.