Help Fund Lukeprog at SIAI

41 points

expand_less expand_more

Eliezer_Yudkowsky

Aug 24, 2011

Singularity Institute desperately needs someone who is not me who can write cognitive-science-based material. Someone smart, energetic, able to speak to popular audiences, and with an excellent command of the science. If you’ve been reading Less Wrong for the last few months, you probably just thought the same thing I did: “SIAI should hire Lukeprog!” To support Luke Muelhauser becoming a full-time Singularity Institute employee, please donate and mention Luke (e.g. “Yay for Luke!”) in the check memo or the comment field of your donation - or if you donate by a method that doesn’t allow you to leave a comment, tell Louie Helm ([email protected]) your donation was to help fund Luke.

Note that the Summer Challenge that doubles all donations will run until August 31st. (We're currently at $31,000 of $125,000.)

During his stint as a Singularity Institute Visiting Fellow, Luke has already:

Co-organized and taught sessions for a well-received one-week Rationality Minicamp, and taught sessions for the nine-week Rationality Boot Camp.
Written many helpful and well-researched articles for Less Wrong on metaethics, rationality theory, and rationality practice, including the 20-page tutorial A Crash Course in the Neuroscience of Human Motivation.
Written a new Singularity FAQ.
Published an intelligence explosion website for academics.
...and completed many smaller projects.

As a full-time Singularity Institute employee, Luke could:

Author and co-author research papers and outreach papers, including
- A chapter already accepted to Springer’s The Singularity Hypothesis volume (co-authored with Louie Helm).
- A paper on existential risk and optimal philanthropy, co-authored with a Columbia University researcher.
Continue to write articles for Less Wrong on the theory and practice of rationality.
Write a report that summarizes unsolved problems related to Friendly AI.
Continue to develop his metaethics sequence, the conclusion of which will be a sort of Polymath Project for collaboratively solving open problems in metaethics relevant to FAI development.
Teach courses on rationality and social effectiveness, as he has been doing for the Singularity Institute’s Rationality Minicamp and Rationality Boot Camp.
Produce introductory materials to help bridge inferential gaps, as he did with the Singularity FAQ.
Raise awareness of AI risk and the uses of rationality by giving talks at universities and technology companies, as he recently did at Halcyon Molecular.

If you’d like to help us fund Luke Muehlhauser to do all that and probably more, please donate now and include the word “Luke” in the comment field. And if you donate before August 31st, your donation will be doubled as part of the 2011 Summer Singularity Challenge.

41 points

expand_less expand_more

Eliezer_Yudkowsky

Comments

sorted by

Highlighting new comments since Today at 8:52 PM

All comments loaded

51 points

expand_less expand_more

I donated 10000$.

51 points

expand_less expand_more

42 points

expand_less expand_more

I just put in a pledge of $1,000 per month.

42 points

expand_less expand_more

BrandonReinhart

34 points

expand_less expand_more

Hiring Luke full time would be an excellent choice for the SIAI. I spent time with Luke at mini-camp and can provide some insight.

Luke is an excellent communicator and agent for the efficient transmission of ideas. More importantly, he has the ability to teach these skills to others. Luke has shown this skill publicly on Less Wrong and also on his blog, with this distilled analysis of Eliezer's writing "Reading Yudkowsky."
Luke is a genuine modern day renaissance man, a true polymath. However, Luke is very self-aware of his limitations and has devoted significant work to finding ways of removing or mitigating those limitations. For example any person with a broad range of academic interests could fall prey to never acquiring useful skills in any of those interest areas. Luke sees this as a serious problem of concern and wants to maximize the efficiency of searching the academic space of ideas. Again, for Luke this is a teachable skill. His session "Productivity and Scholarship" at minicamp outlined techniques for efficient research and reducing akrasia. None of that material would be particularly surprising for a regular reader of Less Wrong -- because Luke pioneered critical posts on these subjects. Luke's suggestions were all implementable and process focused, such as utilizing review articles and Wikipedia to rapidly familiarize one's self broadly with the jargon of a new discipline before doing deep research.
Luke is an excellent listener and has a high degree of effectiveness in human interaction. This manifests itself as someone you enjoy speaking to, who seems interested in your views, and then who is able to tell you why you are wrong in a way that makes you feel smarter. (Compare with Eliezer, who will simply turn away when you are wrong. This is fine for Eliezer, but not ideal for SIAI as an organization.) Again, Luke understands how to teach this skill set. It seems likely that Luke would raise the social effectiveness of SIAI as an organization and then also generate positive affectations toward the organization in his dealings with others.

Luke would have a positive influence on the culture of the SIAI, the research of the SIAI, and the public face of the SIAI. Any organization would love to find someone who excels in any one of those dimensions, much less someone who excels in all of them.

Mini-camp was an exhausting challenge to all of the instructors. Luke never once showed that exhaustion, let it dampen his enthusiasm, or let his annoyance be shown (except, perhaps, as a tactical tool to move along a stalled or irrelevant conversation). In many ways he presented the best face of "mini-camp as a consumable product." That trait (we could call it customer focus or product awareness) is a critical skill the SIAI is lacking.

An example of how Luke has changed me. I was only vaguely aware of the concepts of efficient learning and study. Of course, I know about study habits and putting in time at practice in a certain sense. These usually emphasize practice and time investment (which is important) but underemphasize the value of finding the right things to spend time on.

It was only when I read Luke's posts, spoke to him, and participated in his sessions at mini-camp that I received a language for thinking about and conducting introspection on the subject of efficient learning. Specifically, I've applied his standards and process to my study of guitar and classical music and I now feel I've effectively solved the question of where to spend my time and am solely in the realm of doing the actual practice, composition, and research. I've advanced more in the past few months of music study than I have ever done in the prior year and a half I played guitar.

In the past month I have actively applied his skill of skimming review material (review books on classical composers) and then used wikipedia to rapidly drill down on confusing component subjects. In the past month, I have actively applied his skill of thinking vicariously about someone else's victory that represents goals I have to make a hard road seem less like a barrier and more like a negotiable terrain. In the past month, I have applied his skill of considering the merits of multiple competing areas of interest, determined the one with the most impact, and pursued it (knowing I could later scoop up the missing pieces more quickly).

I did all of that with the awareness that Luke was the source of the skills and language that let me do those things.

I am more awesome because of Luke.

34 points

expand_less expand_more

26 points

expand_less expand_more

I just donated an additional $2000. Yay for Luke!

26 points

expand_less expand_more

24 points

expand_less expand_more

So, no plans for providing any substantiation of the mini-camp's purported success? (Some want to know.) Or of people who have increased their level of life success as a result of the winning at life guides?

24 points

expand_less expand_more

39 points

expand_less expand_more

Among the ultimate criteria for the minicamps is their impact on long-term life success. To assess this, both minicamp participants and a control group completed a long, anonymous survey containing many indicators of life success (income, self-reported happiness and anxiety levels, many questions about degree of social connectedness and satisfaction with relationships, etc.); we plan to give it again to both groups a year after mini-camp, to see whether minicampers improved more than controls. I’m eager to see and update from those results, but we’re only a couple months into the year’s waiting period. (The reason we decided ahead of time to wait a year is that minicamp aimed to give participants tools for personal change; and, for example, it takes time for improved social skills, strategicness, and career plans to translate into income.)

Meanwhile, we’re working with self-report measures because they are what we have. But they are more positive than I anticipated, and that can’t be a bad sign. I was also positively surprised by the number of rationality, productivity, and social effectiveness habits that participants reported using regularly, in response to my email asking, two months out. To quote a significant fraction of the numerical data from the exit survey (from the last day of minicamp), for those who haven’t seen participants’ ratings:

In answer to “Zero to ten, are you glad you came?”, the median answer was 10 (mean was 9.3).
In answer to “Zero to ten, will your life go significantly differently because you came to mini-camp?” the median answer was 7.5 (the mean was 6.9). [This was the response that was most positively surprising to me.]
In answer to “Zero to ten, has your epistemic rationality improved?”, the median answer was 7 (mean 6.9)
In answer to “Zero to ten, are you more motivated to learn epistemic rationality, than you were when you came?”, the median answer was 8.5 (mean 8.1)
In answer to “Zero to ten, have you become more skilled at modifying your emotions and dispositions?”, the median answer was 7 (mean 6.3).
In answer to “Zero to ten, are you more motivated to modify your emotions and dispositions, than you were when you came?”, the median answer was 9 (mean 8.3).
In answer to “Zero to ten, are you more motivated to gain social skills than you were when you came?”, the median answer was 8 (mean 7.7).
In answer to “Zero to ten, have you gained social skills since coming?”, the median answer was 7.5 (mean 7.2).
In answer to “zero to ten, did you like Luke’s sessions?”, the median answer was 9 (mean answer 8.7).

Some excerpts from the survey, about about Luke’s sessions in particular:

“Luke is an excellent presenter. These sessions exceeded my expectations: I am convinced I have under-valued social interaction and techniques and that I can accelerate my success curve by aggressively adopting them. ”
“I really liked Luke's sessions. They were fun and interactive and well put together. There is an effect of being a bit more personally interested in the material.”
“Very useful content. Great presentation of it. Very good at handling the practical camp-issues and also useful fashion tips.”
“Luke’s sessions were concise, and well structured. Good PPT templates!”
“The social effectiveness and fashion sessions were very useful for me. ”
“Some parts of some sessions i felt went too slowly... but mostly extremely valuable information. wish we could have more social skills sessions - i would take another camp just for these super low-hanging fruit.”
“Luke gave concrete examples and advice. It was very helpful.”
“Luke was great as a session leader. His sessions were very clearly, cleanly organized, and discussions in his sessions were handled very well. Luke has, by far, the presence to lead a discussion among 16 people. :)”
“Luke was great. His sessions hit the relevant points in an effective manner.”
“Luke was very helpful and knowledgeable. The pace of his sessions was really good, and there was a lot of room for discussion. Luke also gave some helpful and specific fashion advice. ”
“Pretty much everything with Luke was phenomenal... Luke really made this whole camp worthwhile. I know this is more praise than constructive feedback, but I legitimately can't think of anything!”

I worked on mini-camp with Luke, and I can honestly say that it’s only because of Luke that we were able to hold minicamp at all, and also that he was a phenomenal work partner in organizing the camp, getting all the logistics together, and generally making it a positive and, for many, life-changing experience.

More generally: In minicamp and other SingInst projects, Luke combines energy, reliable ability to carry projects to completion, and strategicness as to which projects make sense and which aspects of those projects are most worth the extra effort; if you’re looking to reduce existential risk, making it possible for SingInst to stably hire Luke seems to me to offer unusually good bang for your buck.

39 points

expand_less expand_more

12 points

expand_less expand_more

both minicamp participants and a control group

How was the control group selected? Did you select a pool of candidates larger than you could accept then randomly take a subset of these as a control? If not then calling it a 'control group' is borderline at best.

The prior expectation of the influence of one week of training on personal success over a year is far lower than that of various personal and environmental qualities in the individual. This being the case it is more reasonable to attribute differences in progress between the groups to the higher potential for growth in the chosen minicampers. This primarily reflects well on the ability of the Singinst rationality trainers to identify indicators of future success - a rather important skill in its own right!

12 points

expand_less expand_more

14 points

expand_less expand_more

A good point. The control group was of folks who made it through the initial screening but not the final screening, so, yes, there are differences. We explicitly discussed the possibility of randomizing admissions, but, for our first go, elected to admit the 25 people we most wanted, and to try randomizing some future events if the first worked well enough to warrant follow-ups (which it did). It is a bit of a hit to the data-gathering, but it wasn't growth potential as such that we were selecting for -- for example, younger applicants were less likely to have cool accomplishments and therefore less likely to get in, although they probably have more growth potential -- so there should still be evidence in the results.

Also, we marked down which not-admitted applicants were closest to the cut-off line (there were a number of close calls; I really wished we had more than 25 spaces), so we can gain a bit of data by seeing if they were similar to the minicamp group or to the rest of the controls.

14 points

expand_less expand_more

19 points

expand_less expand_more

SilasBarta,

We collected lots of data before and during minicamp. We are waiting for some time to pass before collecting followup data, because it takes time for people's lives to change, if they're going to change. Minicamp was only a couple months ago.

Minicampers are generally still in contact, and indeed we are still gathering data. For example, several minicampers sent me before and after photos concerning their fashion (which was part of the social effectiveness section of the minicamp) and I'm going to show them to people on the street and ask them to choose which look they prefer (without indicating which is 'before' and which one is 'after').

So yes: by all qualitative measures, minicamp seems to have been a success. The early quantitative measures have been taken, but before-and-after results will have to wait a while.

As for future rationality training, we are taking the data gathered from minicamp and boot camp and also from some market research we did and trying to build a solid curriculum. To my knowledge, four people are seriously working on this project, and Eliezer is one of them.

Cheers,

Luke

19 points

expand_less expand_more

14 points

expand_less expand_more

I agree with 'more testing and evidence, please', but you often come across as adversarial and I think that generally makes it harder for you to convince the people you want to convince.

As an aside, remember that the minicamp was a relatively unplanned event; it came about because SIAI had extra time and space. I will be more concerned if the megacamp has a similar lack of testing.

14 points

expand_less expand_more

13 points

expand_less expand_more

One of the many things I updated on as a result of the 9-week bootcamp is the importance of tone. I'm sympathetic to your data-crusade, but the way in which you're prosecuting it is leading me to dislike you.

You've made a number of posts indicating that you place a high priority on finding and joining a rationalist community. That will be more difficult if you are generally perceived by rationalists as a hostile conversationalist; you should be more strategic about achieving your goals.

13 points

expand_less expand_more

12 points

expand_less expand_more

Upvoted, and props for sticking to your guns on this.

I appreciate that substantiating this sort of thing is non-trivial, but I would like to see at least an effort at some sort of evaluation.

12 points

expand_less expand_more

20 points

expand_less expand_more

I'm not sure yet how much I want to donate, so I just donated 100 USD. Yay Luke!

20 points

expand_less expand_more

20 points

expand_less expand_more

Was planning on waiting 'til the last day to decide with maximum info (in particular, whether the maximum match amount was met). If enough other people think like me, SIAI should see a rush of cash in the last few days of the contest.

But Eliezer forced my hand with this from MoR:

Thus this fic will next update at 7pm Pacific Time, on August 30th 2011, unless the Summer Challenge reaches $50,000 or more before then, in which case the fic will update sooner (but still at 7pm, because I'm not cruel).

Also we need more Luke.

So that's another $1000 for SIAI

20 points

expand_less expand_more

17 points

expand_less expand_more

I've been low on cash recently, so I can't donate as much as I've used to, but I resumed the 10 EUR/month regular donation I previously had going on and which got cancelled for some reason which I forget. (Hopefully, I should be keeping that going indefinitely.)

I felt a remarkable resistance to donating such a small amount, feeling that it's even more embarassing than not donating at all. But then I came to my senses and figured I'd post this comment to encourage others to also make a small donation rather than no donation. If you're considering giving a sum which seems too small to be worth it, there's no shame in that! I did it too!

Also, go Luke! You're awesome, and have the kind of amazing energy to work on these issues that I can only dream of having. Just be careful not to burn yourself out.

17 points

expand_less expand_more

15 points

expand_less expand_more

Something about Help Fund Luke, The Summer Challenge, and HPMOR just got a $50 donation out of a 20 year old starving student. Feels good.

15 points

expand_less expand_more

15 points

expand_less expand_more

Also mentioned in the email that went out to the SIAI mailing list, a pledge of monthly donations for the next 12 months counts at the full year's value for purposes of matching.

15 points

expand_less expand_more

27 points

expand_less expand_more

Thanks, this is good to know and really should have been stated on the donations page.

27 points

expand_less expand_more

14 points

expand_less expand_more

Thanks for starting to make the case for SIAI's marginal need for funding.

14 points

expand_less expand_more

13 points

expand_less expand_more

Should this really be under main, and promoted at that? My impression was that main posts, and especially promoted ones were supposed to be reserved for posts discussing rationality and its applications, meant to be held up as examples of our best work. I have nothing against lukeprog, the SIAI, or this effort, but I don't think this really qualifies.

13 points

expand_less expand_more

14 points

expand_less expand_more

Should this really be under main, and promoted at that?

Yes, absolutely. Calls for action in support of causes associated with this site are material for promoted front page articles. It is valuable to send the message that participating, actually donating money rather than just thinking "That's nice, SIAI is hiring another research fellow", is important by giving prominence to the announcement.

14 points

expand_less expand_more

13 points

expand_less expand_more

I lurk on this site every day, and this it the first I've heard about the Summer Challenge. Close call! I just added singinst.org/blog to my feed reader, and sent $1000 Luke's way.

I love funds-matching opportunities! And yet I didn't get an email or anything?

13 points

expand_less expand_more

12 points

expand_less expand_more

I think a lot of the hubbub in this thread is due to different interpretations of SIAI related folks saying that the minicamp was 'successful'. I think many people here have interpreted 'success' as meaning something like "definitely improved the rationality of the attendants lastingly" and I think SIAI folks intended to say something like "was competently executed and gives us something promising to experiment with in the future".

12 points

expand_less expand_more