Math is Subjunctively Objective

Followup to:  Probability is Subjectively Objective, Can Counterfactuals Be True?

I am quite confident that the statement 2 + 3 = 5 is true; I am far less confident of what it means for a mathematical statement to be true.

In "The Simple Truth" I defined a pebble-and-bucket system for tracking sheep, and defined a condition for whether a bucket's pebble level is "true" in terms of the sheep.  The bucket is the belief, the sheep are the reality.  I believe 2 + 3 = 5.  Not just that two sheep plus three sheep equal five sheep, but that 2 + 3 = 5.  That is my belief, but where is the reality?

So now the one comes to me and says:  "Yes, two sheep plus three sheep equals five sheep, and two stars plus three stars equals five stars.  I won't deny that.  But this notion that 2 + 3 = 5, exists only in your imagination, and is purely subjective."

So I say:  Excuse me, what?

And the one says:  "Well, I know what it means to observe two sheep and three sheep leave the fold, and five sheep come back.  I know what it means to press '2' and '+' and '3' on a calculator, and see the screen flash '5'.  I even know what it means to ask someone 'What is two plus three?' and hear them say 'Five.'  But you insist that there is some fact beyond this.  You insist that 2 + 3 = 5."

Well, it kinda is.

"Perhaps you just mean that when you mentally visualize adding two dots and three dots, you end up visualizing five dots.  Perhaps this is the content of what you mean by saying, 2 + 3 = 5.  I have no trouble with that, for brains are as real as sheep."

No, for it seems to me that 2 + 3 equaled 5 before there were any humans around to do addition.  When humans showed up on the scene, they did not make 2 + 3 equal 5 by virtue of thinking it.  Rather, they thought that '2 + 3 = 5' because 2 + 3 did in fact equal 5.

"Prove it."

I'd love to, but I'm busy; I've got to, um, eat a salad.

"The reason you believe that 2 + 3 = 5, is your mental visualization of two dots plus three dots yielding five dots.  Does this not imply that this physical event in your physical brain is the meaning of the statement '2 + 3 = 5'?"

But I honestly don't think that is what I mean.  Suppose that by an amazing cosmic coincidence, a flurry of neutrinos struck my neurons, causing me to imagine two dots colliding with three dots and visualize six dots.  I would then say, '2 + 3 = 6'.  But this wouldn't mean that 2 + 3 actually had become equal to 6.  Now, if what I mean by '2 + 3' consists entirely of what my mere physical brain merely happens to output, then a neutrino could make 2 + 3 = 6.  But you can't change arithmetic by tampering with a calculator.

"Aha!  I have you now!"

Is that so?

"Yes, you've given your whole game away!"

Do tell.

"You visualize a subjunctive world, a counterfactual, where your brain is struck by neutrinos, and says, '2 + 3 = 6'.  So you know that in this case, your future self will say that '2 + 3 = 6'.  But then you add up dots in your own, current brain, and your current self gets five dots.  So you say:  'Even if I believed "2 + 3 = 6", then 2 + 3 would still equal 5.'  You say:  '2 + 3 = 5 regardless of what anyone thinks of it.'  So your current brain, computing the same question while it imagines being different but is not actually different, finds that the answer seems to be the same.  Thus your brain creates the illusion of an additional reality that exists outside it, independent of any brain."

Now hold on!  You've explained my belief that 2 + 3 = 5 regardless of what anyone thinks, but that's not the same as explaining away my belief.  Since 2 + 3 = 5 does not, in fact, depend on what any human being thinks of it, therefore it is right and proper that when I imagine counterfactual worlds in which people (including myself) think '2 + 3 = 6', and I ask what 2 + 3 actually equals in this counterfactual world, it still comes out as 5.

"Don't you see, that's just like trying to visualize motion stopping everywhere in the universe, by imagining yourself as an observer outside the universe who experiences time passing while nothing moves.  But really there is no time without motion."

I see the analogy, but I'm not sure it's a deep analogy.  Not everything you can imagine seeing, doesn't exist.  It seems to me that a brain can easily compute quantities that don't depend on the brain.

"What?  Of course everything that the brain computes depends on the brain!  Everything that the brain computes, is computed inside the brain!"

That's not what I mean!  I just mean that the brain can perform computations that refer to quantities outside the brain.  You can set up a question, like 'How many sheep are in the field?', that isn't about any particular person's brain, and whose actual answer doesn't depend on any particular person's brain.  And then a brain can faithfully compute that answer.

If I count two sheep and three sheep returning from the field, and Autrey's brain gets hit by neutrinos so that Autrey thinks there are six sheep in the fold, then that's not going to cause there to be six sheep in the fold—right?  The whole question here is just not about what Autrey thinks, it's about how many sheep are in the fold.

Why should I care what my subjunctive future self thinks is the sum of 2 + 3, any more than I care what Autrey thinks is the sum of 2 + 3, when it comes to asking what is really the sum of 2 + 3?

"Okay... I'll take another tack.  Suppose you're a psychiatrist, right?  And you're an expert witness in court cases—basically a hired gun, but you try to deceive yourself about it.  Now wouldn't it be a bit suspicious, to find yourself saying:  'Well, the only reason that I in fact believe that the defendant is insane, is because I was paid to be an expert psychiatric witness for the defense.  And if I had been paid to witness for the prosecution, I undoubtedly would have come to the conclusion that the defendant is sane.  But my belief that the defendant is insane, is perfectly justified; it is justified by my observation that the defendant used his own blood to paint an Elder Sign on the wall of his jail cell.'"

Yes, that does sound suspicious, but I don't see the point.

"My point is that the physical cause of your belief that 2 + 3 = 5, is the physical event of your brain visualizing two dots and three dots and coming up with five dots.  If your brain came up six dots, due to a neutrino storm or whatever, you'd think '2 + 3 = 6'.  How can you possibly say that your belief means anything other than the number of dots your brain came up with?"

Now hold on just a second.  Let's say that the psychiatrist is paid by the judge, and when he's paid by the judge, he renders an honest and neutral evaluation, and his evaluation is that the defendant is sane, just played a bit too much Mythos.  So it is true to say that if the psychiatrist had been paid by the defense, then the psychiatrist would have found the defendant to be insane.  But that doesn't mean that when the psychiatrist is paid by the judge, you should dismiss his evaluation as telling you nothing more than 'the psychiatrist was paid by the judge'.  On those occasions where the psychiatrist is paid by the judge, his opinion varies with the defendant, and conveys real evidence about the defendant.

"Okay, so now what's your point?"

That when my brain is not being hit by a neutrino storm, it yields honest and informative evidence that 2 + 3 = 5.

"And if your brain was hit by a neutrino storm, you'd be saying, '2 + 3 = 6 regardless of what anyone thinks of it'.  Which shows how reliable that line of reasoning is."

I'm not claiming that my saying '2 + 3 = 5 no matter what anyone thinks' represents stronger numerical evidence than my saying '2 + 3 = 5'.  My saying the former just tells you something extra about my epistemology, not numbers.

"And you don't think your epistemology is, oh, a little... incoherent?"

No!  I think it is perfectly coherent to simultaneously hold all of the following:

  • 2 + 3 = 5.
  • If neutrinos make me believe "2 + 3 = 6", then 2 + 3 = 5.
  • If neutrinos make me believe "2 + 3 = 6", then I will say "2 + 3 = 6".
  • If neutrinos make me believe that "2 + 3 = 6", then I will thereafter assert that "If neutrinos make me believe '2 + 3 = 5', then 2 + 3 = 6".
  • The cause of my thinking that "2 + 3 = 5 independently of what anyone thinks" is that my current mind, when it subjunctively recomputes the value of 2 + 3 under the assumption that my imagined self is hit by neutrinos, does not see the imagined self's beliefs as changing the dots, and my current brain just visualizes two dots plus three dots, as before, so that the imagination of my current brain shows the same result.
  • If I were actually hit by neutrinos, my brain would compute a different result, and I would assert "2 + 3 = 6 independently of what anyone thinks."
  • 2 + 3 = 5 independently of what anyone thinks.
  • Since 2 + 3 will in fact go on equaling 5 regardless of what I imagine about it or how my brain visualizes cases where my future self has different beliefs, it's a good thing that my imagination doesn't visualize the result as depending on my beliefs.

"Now that's just crazy talk!"

No, you're the crazy one!  You're collapsing your levels; you think that just because my brain asks a question, it should start mixing up queries about the state of my brain into the question.  Not every question my brain asks is about my brain!

Just because something is computed in my brain, doesn't mean that my computation has to depend on my brain's representation of my brain.  It certainly doesn't mean that the actual quantity depends on my brain!  It's my brain that computes my beliefs about gravity, and if neutrinos hit me I will come to a different conclusion; but that doesn't mean that I can think different and fly.  And I don't think I can think different and fly, either!

I am not a calculator who, when someone presses my "2" and "+" and "3" buttons, computes, "What do I output when someone presses 2 + 3?"  I am a calculator who computes "What is 2 + 3?"  The former is a circular question that can consistently return any answer—which makes it not very helpful.

Shouldn't we expect non-circular questions to be the normal case?  The brain evolved to guess at the state of the environment, not guess at 'what the brain will think is the state of the environment'.  Even when the brain models itself, it is trying to know itself, not trying to know what it will think about itself.

Judgments that depend on our representations of anyone's state of mind, like "It's okay to kiss someone only if they want to be kissed", are the exception rather than the rule.

Most quantities we bother to think about at all, will appear to be 'the same regardless of what anyone thinks of them'.  When we imagine thinking differently about the quantity, we will imagine the quantity coming out the same; it will feel "subjunctively objective".

And there's nothing wrong with that!  If something appears to be the same regardless of what anyone thinks, then maybe that's because it actually is the same regardless of what anyone thinks.

Even if you explain that the quantity appears to stay the same in my imagination, merely because my current brain computes it the same way—well, how else would I imagine something, except with my current brain?  Should I imagine it using a rock?

"Okay, so it's possible for something that appears thought-independent, to actually be thought-independent.  But why do you think that 2 + 3 = 5, in particular, has some kind of existence independently of the dots you imagine?"

Because two sheep plus three sheep equals five sheep, and this appears to be true in every mountain and every island, every swamp and every plain and every forest.

And moreover, it is also true of two rocks plus three rocks.

And further, when I press buttons upon a calculator and activate a network of transistors,  it successfully predicts how many sheep or rocks I will find.

Since all these quantities, correlate with each other and successfully predict each other, surely they must have something like a common cause, a similarity that factors out?  Something that is true beyond and before the concrete observations?  Something that the concrete observations hold in common?  And this commonality is then also the sponsor of my answer, 'five', that I find in my own brain.

"But my dear sir, if the fact of 2 + 3 = 5 exists somewhere outside your brain... then where is it?"

Damned if I know.

 

Part of The Metaethics Sequence

Next post: "Does Your Morality Care What You Think?"

Previous post: "Can Counterfactuals Be True?"

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Hmm, Eliezer likes Magic the Gathering (all five basic terrains?)...

Math is just a language. I say "just" not to discount its power, but because it really doesn't exist outside of our conception of it, just as English doesn't exist outside of our conception of it. It's a convention.

The key difference between math and spoken language is that it's unambiguous enough to extrapolate on fairly consistently. If English were that precise we might be able to find truth in the far reaches of the language, just like greek philosophers tried to do. With math, such a thing is actually possible.

So, 2+3=5 corresponds to your dots or sheep, and that's the whole fact of the matter. Cats are called cats because that's what we feel like calling them and calling them dogs won't change their cat-ness.

It FEELS like there should be more because of the way we are accustomed to extrapolating math. There is no additional fact to account for, though.

The only time this isn't really the case is with exotic math which corresponds to a basically "counterfactual" world like "What if the world were made of city blocks?" (Taxi Cab Geometry). It's true that we can imagine false worlds and invent precise language to describe those worlds, but such a description does not make them less false, just more vivid fiction.

It seems to me that math is a set of symbolic tools for clarifying the tautological nature of non-transparently tautological assertions.

2+3=5 is an outcome of a set of artificial laws we can imagine. In that sense, it does exist "purely in your imagination", just as any number of hypothetical systems could exist. "2+3=5" doesn't stand alone without defining what it means - ie. the concept of a number, addition etc. It corresponds to the statement that IF addition is defined like so, numbers like this, and such-and-such rules of inference, then 2+2=5 is a true property of the system.

In a counterfactual world where people believe 2+3=6, in asking about addition you're still talking about the same system with the same rules, not the rules that describe whatever goes on in the minds of the people. (Otherwise you would be making a different claim about a different system.)

So yes, 2+3=5 is clearly true and has always been true even before humans because its a statement about a system defined in terms of its own rules. Any claims about it already include the system's presumptions because those are part of the question, and part of what it means to be "true".

2 rocks + 3 rocks is a different matter - you're talking about the observable world rather than a system where you get to define all the rules in advance. To apply mathematical reasoning to the real world, you have to make the additional claim "combining physical items is isomorphic to the rules of addition", and you're now in the realm of justifying this with empirical evidence. (Of which there is plenty)

I think a better phrasing of your final question then is to ask why do physical systems seem to correspond to the rules of this particular system, but there is a degree of circularity there - obviously we haven't just made up the rules of mathematics arbitrarily - we've based the lowest levels on recognised concepts, and then found that the same laws seem to apply at very deep levels with very high degrees of congruence with the world. If the universe were somehow different and nothing ever acted in any way corresponding to our model of "addition" or "numbers" though, then we'd not attach any special significance to it. Our "mathematics" would be quite different, and we'd be asking the same question about that system.

If you had a Turing machine that perfectly simulated the physical laws of our universe, could an external person use that machine's source code to derive the laws of arithmetic as they are within our universe, even if the laws of arithmetic for the external person's universe were different?

Suppose we think about it the opposite way: what if we built a machine that simulated the physical laws of a universe where 2+3 = 6, where if you stick 2 whatsits by 3 whatsits you get 6 whatsits total. What would that universe be like? Could it even be built?

Why do you have to say the math is "outside" the brain? I do understand that the model of the natural numbers is particularly useful in making elegant predictions about our physical universe, but why does that say something about the numbers or the math? The integers are an example of a formal system, but we can construct other formal systems where the formula 2+3=6 holds (I don't know of any interesting such formal systems, though). I can easily see that we have these formal systems, and we also have inductive arguments that they describe the world well. I get the sense Eliezer that you posit a third thing "exists". But, wouldn't this be a case of the "mind-projection fallacy"? Why do we need a third thing exist when the formal system and the inductive argument account for everything (or, perhaps they don't, and I'm missing the point...).

I'm quite unconfident about this whole line of argument, and concerned that we're heading for some moral conclusions based on appeals to this argument. If you have to get into odd discussions about the truth and meaning of mathematical entities to make a metaethical l argument, I doubt you have a good metaethical argument.

The funny thing is I consider morality subjective objective, just like yummyness. What is subjectively yummy to you is an objective fact about you, just as what is moral to you is an objective fact about you. If we run the You algorithm to evaluate yummyness of a root beer float, we'll get an answer, depending on a lot of state variables about you. Similarly, we can run your moral algorithm to evaluate a person's actions, and depending on a lot of state variables, we'll get an answer there too. Both answers are objective facts about the subjective you.

I'm quite unconfident about this whole line of argument, and concerned that we're heading for some moral conclusions based on appeals to this argument. If you have to get into odd discussions about the truth and meaning of mathematical entities to make a metaethical l argument, I doubt you have a good metaethical argument.

I don't know about that. People continually make metaethical mistakes by assuming that "morality is defined by your brain" is the same as "morality is about your brain", and draw all kinds of faulty conclusions, like that unless there's a stone tablet somewhere out in space with the Thousand Commandments of Morality written on it, it must be okay for people -- in different societies, with different beliefs -- to torture children if they want to (because hey, if morality isn't objective it must be relative, right?). That's exactly the error being talked about here, collapsing levels, and I think it's kind of an important one, metaethically.

I am quite confident that the statement 2 + 3 = 5 is true; I am far less confident of what it means for a mathematical statement to be true.

There are two complementary answers to this question that seem right to me: Quine's Two Dogmas of Empiricism and Lakoff and Núñez's Where Mathematics Comes From. As Quine says, first you have to get rid of the false distinction between analytic and synthetic truth. What you have instead is a web or network of mutually reinforcing beliefs. Parts of this web touch the world relatively closely (beliefs about counting sheep) and parts touch the world less closely (beliefs about Peano's axioms for arithmetic). But the degree of confidence we have in a belief does not necessarily correspond to how closely it is connected to the world; it depends more on how the belief is embedded in our web of beliefs and how much support the belief gets from surrounding beliefs. Thus "2 + 3 = 5" can be strongly supported in our web of beliefs, more so than some beliefs that are more directly connected to the world, yet ultimately "2 + 3 = 5" is anchored in our daily experience of the world. Lakoff and Núñez go into more detail about the nature of this web and its anchoring, but what they say is largely consistent with Quine's general view.

"But my dear sir, if the fact of 2 + 3 = 5 exists somewhere outside your brain... then where is it?"

A mathematical truth can be formalized as output of a proof checking algorithm, and output of an algorithm can be verified to an arbitrary level of certainty (by running it again and again, on redundant substrate). When you say that something is mathematically true, it can be considered an estimation of counterfactual that includes building of such a machine.

Math isn't a language, mathematical notation is a language. Math is a subject matter that you can talk about in mathematical notation, or in English, etc.

I've been wondering. The conventional wisdom says that it's a problem for mathematical realism to explain how we can come to understand mathematical facts without causally interacting with them. But surely you could build causal diagrams with logical uncertainty in them and they would show that mathematical facts do indeed causally influence your brain?

Also, I would say the problem (if any) is the location of 2, 3, and 5, not the location of 2+3=5, unless the location of "Napoleon is dead" is also a problem.

"But my dear sir, if the fact of 2 + 3 = 5 exists somewhere outside your brain... then where is it?"

The truth-condition for "There are five sheep in the meadow" concerns the state of the meadow.

My guess is that the truth condition for "2 + 3 = 5" concerns the (more complex, but unproblematically material) set of facts you present: the facts that e.g.: It's easy to find sheep for which two sheep and three sheep make five sheep It's fairly easy to build calculators that model what happens with the sheep It's fairly easy to evolve brains that model what happens with the calculators and the sheep. It's fairly easy to find "formal mathematical models" that can run on these evolved brains, that model what's going on with the sheep and the rocks and various other systems, with axioms and rules of inference that can be briefly described in English.

We have good reason to claim that "2+3 = 5" has an existence outside your mind. We have such reason because, as you point out, we see many different material systems that "correlate with each other and successfully predict one another".

But... do we have any reason to claim that "2+3=5" has an existence outside of these correlations between material systems? My guess is "no". My guess is that we should say that "2+3=5" is about these correlations. Once we say this, we can go ahead and investigate these correlations the way we'd investigate other aspects of material systems: we can try to spell out just what systems do "correlate with each other and successfully predict one another" in the ways we summarize with addition, and then what systems correlate with one another in the ways we summarize with Euclidean geometry, and then look for the meta-level pattern that unites the two sets of correlations.

These questions about the correlations are interesting and partially unsolved. But my guess is that they aren't gaps in our understanding of what math is about, just gaps in our understanding of the correlated material processes that math is about. The lines of questioning needed to explain these correlations are different from the lines of questioning that tend to be invoked when someone asks "where" math is.

I'm not convinced that it makes sense to talk about visualizing two dots and three dots that are six dots. I would say that the physical event of visualizing two dots and of visualizing three more dots IS the event "visualizing five dots". There is then a separate event, lets call it "describing what you have visualized", that can be mistaken. You can visualize five dots and as a result of interference in the information flow to your mouth end up saying "I see six dots". For that matter, you can visualize five dots, and as a result of either noise or the fact that it is hot out and other parts of your brain are competing to control your vocal apparatus, end up saying "it sure is hot out" instead of "I see five dots". In either of these cases you would say that the vocalization is not about the visualization, but rather, about the other mental and physical processes that caused it. In that case, why not say that "I see six dots" is about your visualization AND the neutrinos, not about the visualization.

I think it doesn't make sense to suggest that 2 + 3 = 5 is a belief. It is the result of a set of definitions. As long as we agree on what 2, +, 3, =, and 5 mean, we have to agree on what 2 + 3 = 5 means. I think that if your brain were subject to a neutrino storm and you somehow felt that 2 + 3 = 6, you would still be able to verify that 2 + 3 = 6 by other means, such as counting on your fingers.

I think once you start asking why these things are the way they are, don't you have to start asking why anything exists at all, and what it means for anything to exist? And I'm pretty sure at that point, we are firmly in the province of philosophy and there are no equations to be written, because the existence of the equations themselves is part of the question we're asking.

But I mean, this question has been in my mind since the beginning of the quantum series. I've written a lot of useful software since then, though, without entertaining it much. Do you think maybe it's just better to get on with our lives? It's not a rhetorical question, I really don't know.

In college, I made the observation that math majors tended to think that math itself was something real, while physcis majors, studying the exact same math in the same classes at the same time, tended to think that math was just a conceptual tool that was sometimes useful when trying to discover things about reality, but that math wasn't itself real. I'm not sure which view is more valid then the other, or how you even distinguish the two views.

Taboo "real" (I find this a uniquely useless word in general) and I don't think the typical physics major and the typical math major are actually disagreeing about anything. Most of what I've heard physics and math people say on this subject is signaling tribe affiliation, e.g. "physics is to math as sex is to masturbation."

Why not call the set of all sets of actual objects with cardinality 3, "three", the set of all sets of physical objects with cardinality 2, "two", and the set of all sets of physical objects with cardinality 5, "five"? Then when I said that 2+3=5, all I would mean is that for any x in two and any y in three, the union of x and y is in five. If you allow sets of physical objects, and sets of sets of physical objects, into your ontology, then you got this; 2+3=5 no matter what anyone thinks, and two and three are real objects existing out there.

"But my dear sir, if the fact of 2 + 3 = 5 exists somewhere outside your brain... then where is it?"

Damned if I know.

Everywhere two and three things exist, "2 + 3 = 5" exists. Much like there is only one electron, there is one "2 + 3 = 5". Electrons and mathematics are described by their behaviors. "If the behavior of electrons exists outside your brain... then where is it?"

Everywhere.

"But my dear sir, if the fact of 2 + 3 = 5 exists somewhere outside your brain... then where is it?"

Some day EY will learn to taboo "exist", and that will be his awakening as an instrumentalist.

Odd, EY never seemed to me as particularly opposed or holding views going against / away from instrumentalism, when I was reading the sequences.

I'm curious to see where that comment comes from.

I cannot speak for him, but my understanding is that he identifies instrumentalism with "traditional rationality", which is but a small step toward Bayesianism.