Less Wrong Q&A with Eliezer Yudkowsky: Video Answers

On October 29th, I asked Eliezer and the LW community if they were interested in doing a video Q&A. Eliezer agreed and a majority of commenters were in favor of the idea, so on November 11th, I created a thread where LWers could submit questions. Dozens of questions were asked, generating a total of over 650 comments. The questions were then ranked using the LW voting system.

On December 11th, Eliezer filmed his replies to the top questions (skipping some), and sent me the videos on December 22nd. Because voting continued after that date, the order of the top questions in the original thread has changed a bit, but you can find the original question for each video (and the discussion it generated, if any) by following the links below.

Thanks to Eliezer and everybody who participated.

Update: If you prefer to download the videos, they are available here (800 MB, .wmw format, sort the files by 'date created').

Link to question #1.

Link to question #2.

Link to question #3.

Link to question #4.

Eliezer Yudkowsky - Less Wrong Q&A (5/30) from MikeGR on Vimeo.

Link to question #5.

(Video #5 is on Vimeo because Youtube doesn't accept videos longer than 10 minutes and I only found out after uploading about a dozen. I would gladly have put them all on Vimeo, but there's a 500 MB/week upload limit and these videos add up to over 800 MB.)

Link to question #6.

Link to question #7.

Link to question #8.

Link to question #9.

Link to question #10.

Link to question #11.

Link to question #12.

Link to question #13.

Link to question #14.

Link to question #15.

Link to question #16.

Link to question #17.

Link to question #18.

Link to question #19.

Link to question #20.

Link to question #21.

Link to question #22.

Link to question #23.

Link to question #24.

Link to question #25.

Link to question #26.

Link to question #27.

Link to question #28.

Link to question #29.

Link to question #30.

If anything is wrong with the videos or links, let me know in the comments or via private message.

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Bonus feature: If you 'pagedown' rapidly through all the videos, you get an Eliezer flipbook.

I wonder why Eliezer doesn't want to say anything concrete about his work with Marcello? ("Most of the real progress that has been made when I sit down and actually work on the problem is things I'd rather not talk about")

There seem to be only two plausible reasons:

  1. Someone else might use his work in ways he doesn't want them to.
  2. It would somehow hurt him, the SIAI or the cause of Friendly AI.

For 1. someone else stealing his work and finishing a provably friendly AI first would be a good thing, would it not? Losing the chance to do it himself shouldn't matter as much as the fate of the future intergalactic civilization to an altruist like him. Maybe his work on provable friendliness would reveal ideas on AI design that could be used to produce an unfriendly AI? But even then the ideas would probably only help AI researchers who work on transparent design, are aware of the friendliness problem and take friendliness serious enough to mine the work on friendliness of the main proponent of friendliness for useful ideas. Wouldn't giving these people a relative advantage compared to e. g. connectivists be a good thing? Unless he thinks that AGI would then suddenly be very close while FAI still is far away... Or maybe he thinks a partial solution to the friendliness problem would make people overconfident and less cautious than they would otherwise be?

As for 2. the work so far might be very unimpressive, reveal embarrassing facts about a previous state of knowledge, or be subject to change and a publicly apparent change of opinion be deemed disadvantageous. Or maybe Eliezer fears that publicly revealing some things would psychologically commit him to them in ways that would be counterproductive?

Maybe his work on provable friendliness would reveal ideas on AI design that could be used to produce an unfriendly AI? But even then the ideas would probably only help AI researchers who work on transparent design

All FAIs are AGIs, most of the FAI problem is solving the AGI problem in particular ways.

What would be way cool is a description of the question along with the link, though I realize that might be a bit of work.

1.

What is your information diet like? Do you control it deliberately (do you have a method; is it, er, intelligently designed), or do you just let it happen naturally.

By that I mean things like: Do you have a reading schedule (x number of hours daily, etc)? Do you follow the news, or try to avoid information with a short shelf-life? Do you frequently stop yourself from doing things that you enjoy (f.ex reading certain magazines, books, watching films, etc) to focus on what is more important? etc.

2.

Your "Bookshelf" page is 10 years old (and contains a warning sign saying it is obsolete):

http://yudkowsky.net/obsolete/bookshelf.html

Could you tell us about some of the books and papers that you've been reading lately? I'm particularly interested in books that you've read since 1999 that you would consider to be of the highest quality and/or importance (fiction or not).

3.

What is a typical EY workday like? How many hours/day on average are devoted to FAI research, and how many to other things, and what are the other major activities that you devote your time to?

4.

Could you please tell us a little about your brain? For example, what is your IQ, at what age did you learn calculus, do you use cognitive enhancing drugs or brain fitness programs, are you Neurotypical and why didn't you attend school?

5.

During a panel discussion at the most recent Singularity Summit, Eliezer speculated that he might have ended up as a science fiction author, but then quickly added:

I have to remind myself that it's not what's the most fun to do, it's not even what you have talent to do, it's what you need to do that you ought to be doing.

Shortly thereafter, Peter Thiel expressed a wish that all the people currently working on string theory would shift their attention to AI or aging; no disagreement was heard from anyone present.

I would therefore like to ask Eliezer whether he in fact believes that the only two legitimate occupations for an intelligent person in our current world are (1) working directly on Singularity-related issues, and (2) making as much money as possible on Wall Street in order to donate all but minimal living expenses to SIAI/Methuselah/whatever.

How much of existing art and science would he have been willing to sacrifice so that those who created it could instead have been working on Friendly AI? If it be replied that the work of, say, Newton or Darwin was essential in getting us to our current perspective wherein we have a hope of intelligently tackling this problem, might the same not hold true in yet unknown ways for string theorists? And what of Michelangelo, Beethoven, and indeed science fiction? Aren't we allowed to have similar fun today? For a living, even?

6.

I know at one point you believed in staying celibate, and currently your main page mentions you are in a relationship. What is your current take on relationships, romance, and sex, how did your views develop, and how important are those things to you? (I'd love to know as much personal detail as you are comfortable sharing.)

7.

What's your advice for Less Wrong readers who want to help save the human race?

8.

Autodidacticism

Eliezer, first congratulations for having the intelligence and courage to voluntarily drop out of school at age 12! Was it hard to convince your parents to let you do it? AFAIK you are mostly self-taught. How did you accomplish this? Who guided you, did you have any tutor/mentor? Or did you just read/learn what was interesting and kept going for more, one field of knowledge opening pathways to the next one, etc...?

EDIT: Of course I would be interested in the details, like what books did you read when, and what further interests did they spark, etc... Tell us a little story. ;)

9.

Is your pursuit of a theory of FAI similar to, say, Hutter's AIXI, which is intractable in practice but offers an interesting intuition pump for the implementers of AGI systems? Or do you intend on arriving at the actual blueprints for constructing such systems? I'm still not 100% certain of your goals at SIAI.

10.

What was the story purpose and/or creative history behind the legalization and apparent general acceptance of non-consensual sex in the human society from Three Worlds Collide?

11.

If you were to disappear (freak meteorite accident), what would the impact on FAI research be?

Do you know other people who could continue your research, or that are showing similar potential and working on the same problems? Or would you estimate that it would be a significant setback for the field (possibly because it is a very small field to begin with)?

12.

Your approach to AI seems to involve solving every issue perfectly (or very close to perfection). Do you see any future for more approximate, rough and ready approaches, or are these dangerous?

13.

How young can children start being trained as rationalists? And what would the core syllabus / training regimen look like?

14.

Could you (Well, "you" being Eliezer in this case, rather than the OP) elaborate a bit on your "infinite set atheism"? How do you feel about the set of natural numbers? What about its power set? What about that thing's power set, etc?

From the other direction, why aren't you an ultrafinitist?

15.

Why do you have a strong interest in anime, and how has it affected your thinking?

16.

What are your current techniques for balancing thinking and meta-thinking?

For example, trying to solve your current problem, versus trying to improve your problem-solving capabilities.

17.

Could you give an uptodate estimate of how soon non-Friendly general AI might be developed? With confidence intervals, and by type of originator (research, military, industry, unplanned evolution from non-general AI...)

18.

What progress have you made on FAI in the last five years and in the last year?

19.

How do you characterize the success of your attempt to create rationalists?

20.

What is the probability that this is the ultimate base layer of reality?

21.

Who was the most interesting would-be FAI solver you encountered?

22.

If Omega materialized and told you Robin was correct and you are wrong, what do you do for the next week? The next decade?

23.

In one of the discussions surrounding the AI-box experiments, you said that you would be unwilling to use a hypothetical fully general argument/"mind hack" to cause people to support SIAI. You've also repeatedly said that the friendly AI problem is a "save the world" level issue. Can you explain the first statement in more depth? It seems to me that if anything really falls into "win by any means necessary" mode, saving the world is it.

24.

What criteria do you use to decide upon the class of algorithms / computations / chemicals / physical operations that you consider "conscious" in the sense of "having experiences" that matter morally? I assume it includes many non-human animals (including wild animals)? Might it include insects? Is it weighted by some correlate of brain / hardware size? Might it include digital computers? Lego Turing machines? China brains? Reinforcement-learning algorithms? Simple Python scripts that I could run on my desktop? Molecule movements in the wall behind John Searle's back that can be interpreted as running computations corresponding to conscious suffering? Rocks? How does it distinguish interpretations of numbers as signed vs. unsigned, or ones complement vs. twos complement? What physical details of the computations matter? Does it regard carbon differently from silicon?

25.

I admit to being curious about various biographical matters. So for example I might ask:

What are your relations like with your parents and the rest of your family? Are you the only one to have given up religion?

26.

Is there any published work in AI (whether or not directed towards Friendliness) that you consider does not immediately, fundamentally fail due to the various issues and fallacies you've written on over the course of LW? (E.g. meaningfully named Lisp symbols, hiddenly complex wishes, magical categories, anthropomorphism, etc.)

ETA: By AI I meant AGI.

27.

Do you feel lonely often? How bad (or important) is it?

(Above questions are a corollary of:) Do you feel that — as you improve your understanding of the world more and more —, there are fewer and fewer people who understand you and with whom you can genuinely relate in a personal level?

28.

Previously, you endorsed this position:

Never try to deceive yourself, or offer a reason to believe other than probable truth; because even if you come up with an amazing clever reason, it's more likely that you've made a mistake than that you have a reasonable expectation of this being a net benefit in the long run.

One counterexample has been proposed a few times: holding false beliefs about oneself in order to increase the appearance of confidence, given that it's difficult to directly manipulate all the subtle signals that indicate confidence to others.

What do you think about this kind of self-deception?

29.

In the spirit of considering semi abyssal plans, what happens if, say, next week you discover a genuine reduction of consciousness and in turns out that... There's simply no way to construct the type of optimization process you want without it being conscious, even if very different from us?

ie, what if it turned out that The Law turned out to have the consequence of "to create a general mind is to create a conscious mind. No way around that"? Obviously that shifts the ethics a bit, but my question is basically if so, well... "now what?" what would have to be done differently, in what ways, etc?

30.

What single technique do you think is most useful for a smart, motivated person to improve their own rationality in the decisions they encounter in everyday life?

In response to Eliezer's response on Video #5, indicating that smart people should be working on AI, and not String Theory.

I tend to agree, as those are fields which are not likely going to give us any new technologies that are going to make the world a safer place... and

Any work that speeds the arrival of AI will also speed the solution to any problems in sciences such as String Theory, as a recursively improving intelligence will be able to aid in the discovery of solutions much more rapidly than the addition of five or ten really smart people will aid in the discovery of solutions.

Shouldn't we hedge our bets a little? I don't know what the probability is that the Singularity Institute succeeds in building an FAI in time to prevent any existential disasters that would otherwise occur but it isn't 1. Any work done to reduce existential risk in the meantime (and in possible futures where no Friendly AI exists) seems to me worthwhile.

Am I wrong?

Your answer to question #8 doesn't mention how you convinced your parents to let you drop out of school at age 12...

I couldn't figure out a way to "play all", so I put everything but the Vimeo one on a YouTube playlist.

Re: autodidacticism & Bayesian enlightenment

For comparison, I did a lot of self-education, but also had a conventional education (ending with a BA in Computer Science). I think I was introduced to Bayesianism in a probability class in college, and it was also the background assumption in a couple of economics courses that I took for fun (Game Theory and Industrial Organization). It seems to me that choosing pure autodidacticism probably delayed Eliezer's Bayesian enlightenment by at least a couple of years.

20: What is the probability that this is the ultimate base layer of reality?

Eliezer gave the joke answer to this question, because this is something that seems impossible to know.

However, I myself assign a significant probability that this is not the base level of reality. Theuncertainfuture.com tells me that I assign a 99% probability of AI by 2070 and it starts approaching .99 before 2070. So why would I be likely to be living as an original human circa 2000 when transhumans will be running ancestor simulations? I suppose it's possible that transhumans won't run ancestor simulations, but I would want to run ancestor simulations, for my merged transhuman mind to be able to assimilate the knowledge of running a human consciousness of myself through interesting points in human history.

The zero one infinity rule also makes it seem more unlikely this is the base level of reality. http://catb.org/jargon/html/Z/Zero-One-Infinity-Rule.html

It seems rather convenient that I am living in the most interesting period in human history. Not to mention I have a lifestyle in the top 1% of all humans living today.

I believe this is a minority viewpoint here, so my rationalist calculus is probably wrong. Why?

In my posts, I've argued that indexical uncertainty like this shouldn't be represented using probabilities. Instead, I suggest that you consider yourself to be all of the many copies of you, i.e., both the ones in the ancestor simulations and the one in 2010, making decisions for all of them. Depending on your preferences, you might consider the consequences of the decisions of the copy in 2010 to be the most important and far-reaching, and therefore act mostly as if that was the only copy.

If the probability, that you are inside a simulation is p, what's the probability that your master simulator is also simulated?

How tall is this tower, most likely?

The zero one infinity rule also makes it seem more unlikely this is the base level of reality.

The Zero-One-Infinity Rule hasn't been shown to apply to our reality, and even if it applied to our reality it would also permit "One".

It seems rather convenient that I am living in the most interesting period in human history.

Can you give us a list of most-to-least interesting periods in human history? You have an anglo name, and I think you're living in a particularly boring period of Anglo-American history. (If you had an Arab name, this might be an interesting period though, though not as interesting as if you were an Arab in the period of Mohammed or the first few Caliphs)

but I would want to run ancestor simulations, for my merged transhuman mind to be able to assimilate the knowledge of running a human consciousness of myself through interesting points in human history.

You don't actually know what you would want with a transhuman mind. If simulations are fully conscious (the only sort of simulation relevant to our argument) I think that would be a particularly cruel thing for a transhuman mind to want.

Thanks for putting all this together! It would be great if you could put the question text above each of the videos in the post so readers can scan through and find questions they're most interested in.

Society is supported by "hydraulic pressure", a myriad flows of wealth/matter/energy/information and human effort each holding the others up. It's a layered, cyclic graph - technology depends on the surplus food of agriculture, agriculture depends on the efficiencies of technology. It's a massively connected graph. It has non-obvious dependencies even at short range - think what computer gamers have done for Moore's law, or music pirates for broadband. It has dependencies across time. It has a lot of dependencies in which the supporter does not know and probably wouldn't much care about the supported - consider the existence of Freemind software, which was not written for SIAI.

This whole structure expends most of its effort supporting itself, most of the rest on motivator rewards, and SIAI gets the crumbs. You could realistically get lots more crumbs.

What is the information dynamics of spreading understanding of FAI as a problem? What technologies support communication, and what are their limitations? (Especially limitations in the ability to arrange huge data for optimally for narrow human input.) How to explore the space of information-connecting technologies? Given that most people have satisficed on a learning strategy that leaves you out entirely, how can you communicate urgency to them?

What economic flows support you in the above? Who supports them?

I think your answer in #5 trivializes the question.

Oh, so that's what Eliezer looks like! I had imagined him as a wise old man with long white hair and beard. Like Tellah the sage, in Final Fantasy IV.

I'll have you know that I work hard at not going down that road.

He's currently the technical director at Bitphase AI. From talking to him, it seems that his strategy is to make tools for speeding up eventual FAI development/implementation and also commercialize those tools to gain funding for FAI research.

From answer 5 there is a great quote from Eliezer:

Reality is one thing... your emotions are another.

About how we don't feel the importance of the singularity.

Wow, thank you for this!

Don't forget to rate each video as you're watching them, people!

Specifically in response to #11, it sounds like you really need more help but can't find anyone right now. What about more broadly reaching out to mathematicians of sufficient caliber?

One idea: throw a mini-conference for super-genius level mathematicians. Whether or not they believe in the possibility of AI, a lot of them would probably be delighted to come if you gave them free airfare, hotel stay, and continental breakfast. Would this be productive?