Previously in series: Beware of Other-Optimizing
Followup to: Bystander Apathy
Yesterday I convered the bystander effect, aka bystander apathy: given a fixed problem situation, a group of bystanders is actually less likely to act than a single bystander. The standard explanation for this result is in terms of pluralistic ignorance (if it's not clear whether the situation is an emergency, each person tries to look calm while darting their eyes at the other bystanders, and sees other people looking calm) and diffusion of responsibility (everyone hopes that someone else will be first to act; being part of a crowd diminishes the individual pressure to the point where no one acts).
Which may be a symptom of our hunter-gatherer coordination mechanisms being defeated by modern conditions. You didn't usually form task-forces with strangers back in the ancestral environment; it was mostly people you knew. And in fact, when all the subjects know each other, the bystander effect diminishes.
So I know this is an amazing and revolutionary observation, and I hope that I don't kill any readers outright from shock by saying this: but people seem to have a hard time reacting constructively to problems encountered over the Internet.
Perhaps because our innate coordination instincts are not tuned for:
- Being part of a group of strangers. (When all subjects know each other, the bystander effect diminishes.)
- Being part of a group of unknown size, of strangers of unknown identity.
- Not being in physical contact (or visual contact); not being able to exchange meaningful glances.
- Not communicating in real time.
- Not being much beholden to each other for other forms of help; not being codependent on the group you're in.
- Being shielded from reputational damage, or the fear of reputational damage, by your own apparent anonymity; no one is visibly looking at you, before whom your reputation might suffer from inaction.
- Being part of a large collective of other inactives; no one will single out you to blame.
- Not hearing a voiced plea for help.
Etcetera. I don't have a brilliant solution to this problem. But it's the sort of thing that I would wish for potential dot-com cofounders to ponder explicitly, rather than wondering how to throw sheep on Facebook. (Yes, I'm looking at you, Hacker News.) There are online activism web apps, but they tend to be along the lines of sign this petition! yay, you signed something! rather than How can we counteract the bystander effect, restore motivation, and work with native group-coordination instincts, over the Internet?
Some of the things that come to mind:
- Put a video of someone asking for help online.
- Put up names and photos or even brief videos if available of the first people who helped (or have some redditish priority algorithm that depends on a combination of amount-helped and recency).
- Give helpers a video thank-you from the founder of the cause that they can put up on their "people I've helped" page, which with enough standardization could be partially or wholly assembled automatically and easily embedded in their home webpage or Facebook account.
- Find a non-annoying idiom for "Tell a friend about cause X"; allow referrer link codes; then show people how many others they've evangelized (how many people who initially got here using referrer code X actually contributed or took some other action).
- (All of the above applies not just to donations, but to open-source projects to which people have contributed code. Or if people really do want nothing but signatures on a petition, then for signatures. There are ways to help besides money—even though money is usually the most effective. The main thing is that the form of help has to be verifiable online.)
- Make it easier for people to offer monetary bounties on subtasks whose performance is verifiable.
But mostly I just hand you an open, unsolved problem: make it possible / easier for groups of strangers to coalesce into an effective task force over the Internet, in defiance of the usual failure modes and the default reasons why this is a non-ancestral problem. Think of that old statistic about Wikipedia representing 1/2,000 of the time spent in the US alone on watching television. There's quite a lot of fuel out there, if there were only such a thing as an effective engine...
Part of the sequence The Craft and the Community
Next post: "Bayesians vs. Barbarians"
Previous post: "Akrasia and Shangri-La"
There are many benefits to surrounding yourself with extremely bright rationalists and scientific generalists. But I wonder if Eliezer has been too successful in sparing himself from the tedium and the trouble of interacting with and observing the common run of scientifically-illiterate irrational not-particularly-bright humanity. If he had been forced to spend a few years in an ordinary American high school or in an ordinary workplace -- or even if he had had lengthy dealings with a few of the many community activists of the San Francisco Bay Area where he lives -- or even if he just had 20 more years of life experience -- I wonder if he would still think it is a good idea to "make it possible / easier for groups of strangers to coalesce into an effective task force over the Internet" using only the skills for working in groups that come from the ancestral environment.
The way it is now, to devise an effective plan to change society, a person needs more rationality skill and more true information about their society than most people have. But I humbly submit that that is not a bug, but rather a feature! So is the fact that the instincts and emotions and biases that come from the ancestral environment are not enough to do it. (I sometimes go even further and say that it is important to be able to use rationality and deliberation to veto or override the instincts and emotions and biases that come from the ancestral environment.)
And I do not think it is particularly useful to frame what I just said as elitism. It is just an acknowledgement of the following reality: for almost any plan you can come up with for empowering the masses, I can come up with a plan that preferentially empowers the people more likely to use the new power for good -- for some definition of "good" that you and I can both agree on. Science and technology and other means of empowering people have become too potent for scientists and technologists and others not to think through what people are likely to do with the new power.
EDIT: for the sake of perspective and balance, I note that the mere fact that a person has read this post and consequently probably has a strong interest in the subject matter of this web site might be enough evidence of rationality to ameliorate my concerns about empowering them with a new technology for collaboration provided that the collaboration has a goal or mission statement less ambiguous than the current mission statement of a certain institute that must not be named, but if Eliezer's purpose is to empower only the people interested enough in rationality and knowledge to keep coming back to this web site, he should say so instead of speaking of empowering people in general.
There are certain resonances between Robin's comment and this one, which is why I put it here.