Even if general beliefs are not informed, imaging a world in with MBA programs would teach the students that good experts make testable predictions. Give it a decade and having predictions is a new management fashion.

General beliefs are generally ignorant nonsense, particularly with regard to mathematical abstractions on aggregates that people have no concrete experience dealing with themselves.

So we need to engineer systems that gives them that experience.

This was quite an eye opener to me when I first saw it. We take empirical testing and verification for granted, but if you were just unaware of it, what else go by to determine the "truth" of something? Scientific method is obviously not in the genes, but I bet you that obedience to authority is, even in "truth".

Experts still generally thrive on authority, not empirically demonstrated competence.

I am not a historian of science and it might be "just-so story", but it was my understanding that one of the reasons Galileo's telescope was so important in the history of science was that it (and other scientific instruments) made it possible to challenge a theory without necessarily having to challenge the authority of the creator of that theory. If people share the same senses which are of approximately the same quality (except, obviously, people who are blind, deaf, etc.), then the defining reason why some people come up with good theories and other don't is their intellect (and thus, authority, since, by halo effect, people who have more authority are generally thought to be more intelligent) and maybe having access to some esoteric knowledge, revelations (the concept of cumulative progress ("standing on the shoulders of giants") is not necessarily helpful for challenging the established theory) which are rare.

So when one tries e.g. to challenge an idea by Aristotle, unless the falsehood of this idea is demonstrated easily and cheaply, all the listeners (who are forced to take an outside view) can do is compare who of you two was more likely to make a faulty reasoning or faulty observation, i.e. comparing intellect and qualifications (and therefore, authority), and the the followers of Aristotle can point to his large and impressive body of work as well as him being highly respected by all other authority figures. On the other hand if one has a telescope (or any other scientific instrument that enables one to extend one's senses) the assumption of everyone having equal senses is broken and it is no longer necessary to engage in "who is more intelligent and wise" fight, one can simply point out that you have a telescope and this is the reason why your discovery (that contradicts a respected position) might nevertheless be correct. One could even make a polite deference to the authority ("X was an extraordinary genius, just imagine what he could have done if he hadall the equipment we have today - possibly much more exciting things than we are currently able to") and still claim to be more correct than them.

When more and more arguments are won by pointing out to these "extended senses", we gradually see the shift of authority in the observations from the eminence of theory creators to the quality of lab equipment.

It is important to note that innovations in methodology (e.g. calculating probabilities) seem more similar to "tools/algorithms" rather than "intellect", since the whole point of having and following a certain methodology at all is to avoid necessarily having to be genius to make a discovery.

However, at any given moment in time, in any given area, most reseachers still use basically the same equipment, thereby restoring the approximate equality of everyone's senses. Therefore even today, when scientists obtain different result using similar (or at least comparable in quality) equipment, people start making claims about who has (and who has not) relevant qualifications. At the same time, we see a lot of theories in astronomy and astrophysics being overturned whenever a new, larger and better telescope becomes available.

I admit, this was mostly about people who take an outside view, and the experts in sciences and/or those who are actually interested in making correct predictions about the world. Many people who are often said to be experts aren't actually trying and have some different goals instead.