How to see into the future, by Tim Harford
The article may be gated. (I have a subscription through my school.)
It is mainly about two things: the differing approaches to forecasting taken by Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, and Roger Babson; and Philip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project.
Key paragraph:
So what is the secret of looking into the future? Initial results from the Good Judgment Project suggest the following approaches. First, some basic training in probabilistic reasoning helps to produce better forecasts. Second, teams of good forecasters produce better results than good forecasters working alone. Third, actively open-minded people prosper as forecasters.
But the Good Judgment Project also hints at why so many experts are such terrible forecasters. It’s not so much that they lack training, teamwork and open-mindedness – although some of these qualities are in shorter supply than others. It’s that most forecasters aren’t actually seriously and single-mindedly trying to see into the future. If they were, they’d keep score and try to improve their predictions based on past errors. They don’t.
I am not a historian of science and it might be "just-so story", but it was my understanding that one of the reasons Galileo's telescope was so important in the history of science was that it (and other scientific instruments) made it possible to challenge a theory without necessarily having to challenge the authority of the creator of that theory. If people share the same senses which are of approximately the same quality (except, obviously, people who are blind, deaf, etc.), then the defining reason why some people come up with good theories and other don't is their intellect (and thus, authority, since, by halo effect, people who have more authority are generally thought to be more intelligent) and maybe having access to some esoteric knowledge, revelations (the concept of cumulative progress ("standing on the shoulders of giants") is not necessarily helpful for challenging the established theory) which are rare.
So when one tries e.g. to challenge an idea by Aristotle, unless the falsehood of this idea is demonstrated easily and cheaply, all the listeners (who are forced to take an outside view) can do is compare who of you two was more likely to make a faulty reasoning or faulty observation, i.e. comparing intellect and qualifications (and therefore, authority), and the the followers of Aristotle can point to his large and impressive body of work as well as him being highly respected by all other authority figures. On the other hand if one has a telescope (or any other scientific instrument that enables one to extend one's senses) the assumption of everyone having equal senses is broken and it is no longer necessary to engage in "who is more intelligent and wise" fight, one can simply point out that you have a telescope and this is the reason why your discovery (that contradicts a respected position) might nevertheless be correct. One could even make a polite deference to the authority ("X was an extraordinary genius, just imagine what he could have done if he hadall the equipment we have today - possibly much more exciting things than we are currently able to") and still claim to be more correct than them.
When more and more arguments are won by pointing out to these "extended senses", we gradually see the shift of authority in the observations from the eminence of theory creators to the quality of lab equipment.
It is important to note that innovations in methodology (e.g. calculating probabilities) seem more similar to "tools/algorithms" rather than "intellect", since the whole point of having and following a certain methodology at all is to avoid necessarily having to be genius to make a discovery.
However, at any given moment in time, in any given area, most reseachers still use basically the same equipment, thereby restoring the approximate equality of everyone's senses. Therefore even today, when scientists obtain different result using similar (or at least comparable in quality) equipment, people start making claims about who has (and who has not) relevant qualifications. At the same time, we see a lot of theories in astronomy and astrophysics being overturned whenever a new, larger and better telescope becomes available.
I admit, this was mostly about people who take an outside view, and the experts in sciences and/or those who are actually interested in making correct predictions about the world. Many people who are often said to be experts aren't actually trying and have some different goals instead.
I don't think it was the case of "I have a telescope ergo I am correct", I think it was more of the case "Here, look into this thing and see for yourself".