A Fable of Science and Politics

In the time of the Roman Empire, civic life was divided between the Blue and Green factions.  The Blues and the Greens murdered each other in single combats, in ambushes, in group battles, in riots.  Procopius said of the warring factions:  "So there grows up in them against their fellow men a hostility which has no cause, and at no time does it cease or disappear, for it gives place neither to the ties of marriage nor of relationship nor of friendship, and the case is the same even though those who differ with respect to these colors be brothers or any other kin."  Edward Gibbon wrote:  "The support of a faction became necessary to every candidate for civil or ecclesiastical honors."

Who were the Blues and the Greens?  They were sports fans—the partisans of the blue and green chariot-racing teams.

Imagine a future society that flees into a vast underground network of caverns and seals the entrances.  We shall not specify whether they flee disease, war, or radiation; we shall suppose the first Undergrounders manage to grow food, find water, recycle air, make light, and survive, and that their descendants thrive and eventually form cities.  Of the world above, there are only legends written on scraps of paper; and one of these scraps of paper describes the sky, a vast open space of air above a great unbounded floor.  The sky is cerulean in color, and contains strange floating objects like enormous tufts of white cotton.  But the meaning of the word "cerulean" is controversial; some say that it refers to the color known as "blue", and others that it refers to the color known as "green".

In the early days of the underground society, the Blues and Greens contested with open violence; but today, truce prevails—a peace born of a growing sense of pointlessness.  Cultural mores have changed; there is a large and prosperous middle class that has grown up with effective law enforcement and become unaccustomed to violence.  The schools provide some sense of historical perspective; how long the battle between Blues and Greens continued, how many died, how little changed as a result.  Minds have been laid open to the strange new philosophy that people are people, whether they be Blue or Green.

The conflict has not vanished.  Society is still divided along Blue and Green lines, and there is a "Blue" and a "Green" position on almost every contemporary issue of political or cultural importance.  The Blues advocate taxes on individual incomes, the Greens advocate taxes on merchant sales; the Blues advocate stricter marriage laws, while the Greens wish to make it easier to obtain divorces; the Blues take their support from the heart of city areas, while the more distant farmers and watersellers tend to be Green; the Blues believe that the Earth is a huge spherical rock at the center of the universe, the Greens that it is a huge flat rock circling some other object called a Sun.  Not every Blue or every Green citizen takes the "Blue" or "Green" position on every issue, but it would be rare to find a city merchant who believed the sky was blue, and yet advocated an individual tax and freer marriage laws.

The Underground is still polarized; an uneasy peace.  A few folk genuinely think that Blues and Greens should be friends, and it is now common for a Green to patronize a Blue shop, or for a Blue to visit a Green tavern.  Yet from a truce originally born of exhaustion, there is a quietly growing spirit of tolerance, even friendship.

One day, the Underground is shaken by a minor earthquake.  A sightseeing party of six is caught in the tremblor while looking at the ruins of ancient dwellings in the upper caverns.  They feel the brief movement of the rock under their feet, and one of the tourists trips and scrapes her knee.  The party decides to turn back, fearing further earthquakes.  On their way back, one person catches a whiff of something strange in the air, a scent coming from a long-unused passageway.  Ignoring the well-meant cautions of fellow travellers, the person borrows a powered lantern and walks into the passageway.  The stone corridor wends upward... and upward... and finally terminates in a hole carved out of the world, a place where all stone ends.  Distance, endless distance, stretches away into forever; a gathering space to hold a thousand cities.  Unimaginably far above, too bright to look at directly, a searing spark casts light over all visible space, the naked filament of some huge light bulb.  In the air, hanging unsupported, are great incomprehensible tufts of white cotton.  And the vast glowing ceiling above... the color... is...

Now history branches, depending on which member of the sightseeing party decided to follow the corridor to the surface.

Aditya the Blue stood under the blue forever, and slowly smiled.  It was not a pleasant smile.  There was hatred, and wounded pride; it recalled every argument she'd ever had with a Green, every rivalry, every contested promotion.  "You were right all along," the sky whispered down at her, "and now you can prove it."  For a moment Aditya stood there, absorbing the message, glorying in it, and then she turned back to the stone corridor to tell the world.  As Aditya walked, she curled her hand into a clenched fist.  "The truce," she said, "is over."

Barron the Green stared incomprehendingly at the chaos of colors for long seconds.  Understanding, when it came, drove a pile-driver punch into the pit of his stomach.  Tears started from his eyes.  Barron thought of the Massacre of Cathay, where a Blue army had massacred every citizen of a Green town, including children; he thought of the ancient Blue general, Annas Rell, who had declared Greens "a pit of disease; a pestilence to be cleansed"; he thought of the glints of hatred he'd seen in Blue eyes and something inside him cracked.  "How can you be on their side?" Barron screamed at the sky, and then he began to weep; because he knew, standing under the malevolent blue glare, that the universe had always been a place of evil.

Charles the Blue considered the blue ceiling, taken aback.  As a professor in a mixed college, Charles had carefully emphasized that Blue and Green viewpoints were equally valid and deserving of tolerance:  The sky was a metaphysical construct, and cerulean a color that could be seen in more than one way.  Briefly, Charles wondered whether a Green, standing in this place, might not see a green ceiling above; or if perhaps the ceiling would be green at this time tomorrow; but he couldn't stake the continued survival of civilization on that.  This was merely a natural phenomenon of some kind, having nothing to do with moral philosophy or society... but one that might be readily misinterpreted, Charles feared.  Charles sighed, and turned to go back into the corridor.  Tomorrow he would come back alone and block off the passageway.

Daria, once Green, tried to breathe amid the ashes of her world.  I will not flinch, Daria told herself, I will not look away.  She had been Green all her life, and now she must be Blue.  Her friends, her family, would turn from her.  Speak the truth, even if your voice trembles, her father had told her; but her father was dead now, and her mother would never understand.  Daria stared down the calm blue gaze of the sky, trying to accept it, and finally her breathing quietened.  I was wrong, she said to herself mournfully; it's not so complicated, after all.  She would find new friends, and perhaps her family would forgive her... or, she wondered with a tinge of hope, rise to this same test, standing underneath this same sky?  "The sky is blue," Daria said experimentally, and nothing dire happened to her; but she couldn't bring herself to smile.  Daria the Blue exhaled sadly, and went back into the world, wondering what she would say.

Eddin, a Green, looked up at the blue sky and began to laugh cynically.  The course of his world's history came clear at last; even he couldn't believe they'd been such fools.  "Stupid," Eddin said, "stupid, stupid, and all the time it was right here."  Hatred, murders, wars, and all along it was just a thing somewhere, that someone had written about like they'd write about any other thing.  No poetry, no beauty, nothing that any sane person would ever care about, just one pointless thing that had been blown out of all proportion.  Eddin leaned against the cave mouth wearily, trying to think of a way to prevent this information from blowing up the world, and wondering if they didn't all deserve it.

Ferris gasped involuntarily, frozen by sheer wonder and delight.  Ferris's eyes darted hungrily about, fastening on each sight in turn before moving reluctantly to the next; the blue sky, the white clouds, the vast unknown outside, full of places and things (and people?) that no Undergrounder had ever seen.  "Oh, so that's what color it is," Ferris said, and went exploring.

 

Part of the Politics Is the Mind-Killer subsequence of How To Actually Change Your Mind

Next post: "Politics Is the Mind-Killer"

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I have had this experience several times in my life; I come across clear enough evidence that settles for me an issue I had seen long disputed. At that point my choice is to either go back and try to persuade disputants, or to continue on to explore the new issues that this settlement raises. As Eliezer implicitly advises, after a short detour to tell a few disputants, I have usually chosen this second route. This is one explanation for the existence of settled but still disputed issues; people who learn the answer leave the conversation.

You forgot a few cases:

Loretta the Green looked at the sky and said: It is blue. Therefore, it is not the sky. Despite its inmensity, its openness, and those things that look like tufts of white cotton. Now that I think of it, those things don't look quite like cotton.

Bob the Groovy Blue said: Wow. Wait until I tell everyone that it's pink. (He was on acid, as usual).

Ed the Green said: Damm, it's not green. It's black.

Frank the Blue said: Hooray, it's not green. It's black.

(Obviously the last two arrived at night)

And finally John the Ecumenical said: Like I've always said. It's cerulean!

I suspect some Greens will take a spectral analysis of cerulean, point out that it differs from standard blue paint and that there's some green in it, and argue that the sky really is green after all. A new debate might start on the proper definitions of "blue" and "green."

BTW, what happens if the sky is overcast and gray?

You know, sometimes I think Daria's attitude is much healthier than Ferris's.

I once told a friend, "I think I'm a Daria, but I know the correct answer is Ferris". Then I realized the absurdity of that statement, and had much pondering to do.

Or the crevice breaks through the ground and into a thickly covered rain-forest. Low and below, as far and high as the eye can see, all is green with tree-cover.

There are no clouds. The definition of the sky included clouds. Therefore, the green cover, (assuming, of course, that they did not realize the plants for what they were,) would not be thought of as the sky.

They break earth in the middle of a cottonfield?

"I have had this experience several times in my life; I come across clear enough evidence that settles for me an issue I had seen long disputed. "

What if you made an error in judgement at that point, not having access to all the relevant facts, and the particular matter under dispute is of great importance to discovering the truth about reality?

Isn't that "settles for me" exactly what we see happening when people are unwilling to look at facts that might challenge their current mental models? Couldn't this lead to a cul-de-sac?

"In the time of the Roman Empire, civic life was divided between the Blue and Green factions".

That's wrong. In the later centuries of the Roman Empire, civic life was divided between the Red, White, Blue and Green factions. The first two vanished in the early part of the Byzantine Empire, so the description is true of the period of the Byzantine Empire under consideration (which still called itself the Roman Empire).

There is some reason to believe that the factions were more than just sporting associations, also handling some militia functions for the defence of Constantinople.

Is it just me, or did Ferris have the best reaction? It seems to me that if everyone reacted this way to learning something so exciting, the world would be a much better place. it doesn't say what Ferris believed earlier, but perhaps the point is that it doesn't matter. What matters is the magic of the reality, not how it relates to prior conceptions.

Gregory looked at the sky contemplatively, arms folded across his chest. "It all seems very obvious to me," he said "that if anyone was REALLY concerned about the color of the sky, what they ought to have done was sent scouts to the surface immediately to determine who was correct, instead of arguing pointlessly without any evidence."

With a disgusted snort, he returned underground.

"Rachel glanced at the sky only once, briefly, before turning to study the expressions of the others who have inevitably followed her outside. She sees incredulity, defeat, unabashed wonder...

She proceeds to gather those with the most angry expressions into a group, and leans in to whisper something to them.

"Now the likelihood is that we can tell everyone back inside that the sky is green. All we'd have to do is make sure none of the Blues ever make it back, and we can say that they died in the earthquake. How many of you are able to pretend to be former Blues that have been converted? The rest of you can help seal up the entrance..."

Nice parable, but the author has stacked the deck. The Blues and Greens were originally divided over the issue of the color of the sky. These groups then developed their own cultures and attitudes that had nothing to do with what they believed was the color of the sky, though they were thus identified. The world had evolved to a point that the Blues and Greens had developed mutual tolerance based on a deeper understanding of their common humanity. I suspect that in this new "secular" world, most people viewed the origins of their group name as fictive or ultimately unimportant and the news of the discovery of the True Color would not materially change their lives. The remaining Fundamentalists would, of course, respond in a variety of ways as outlined in the post and comments. It could get ugly but would probably not effect things too much. As the author notes, the discovery of a vast new world waiting to be exploited, would make the people see gold more than it would blue or green.

You forgot Gerald the Green, the sole survivor of the earthquake.

Matt, yes of course, one should be very cautious about drawing conclusions contrary to a large community of discussion.

Is it just me, or does this strike anyone as very similar to the God debate? Some differences are obvious (the sky's colors don't have books of morals and "history" on their sides, e.g.) but the allusion to hatred and war seems apt.

It seems to me, though, that if we were to flesh this comparison out, neither Ferris's or Daria's responses seem entirely correct (although they are the only two that make an attempt to act as rationally as possible.) Consider Richard Dawkins: A man obviously motivated by science and discovery (Ferris), but yet a man who also feels it necessary to evangelize on behalf of a seemingly obvious proposition (that the universe is able to function without a God).

In order that maximum rational discourse and action may be achieved, it is necessary to synthesize Ferrisian and Darian action into Dawkinsian action.

How about Gloop, who considers the possibility that the fact that the sky is blue now has no actual bearing on what the color of the sky might have been when the scraps of paper were written? He can entertain the possibility that the composition of the atmosphere might have changed during all the time people spent underground, so he establishes a laboratory to investigate if A) what particles were present in the air at the time the paper was written and B) if they were able to scatter blue or green light more efficiently?

The Blues and Greens were Catholics and Monophysites (I forget which was which). They once united and almost overthrew the emperor Justinian (his wife persuaded him not to flee) but Narses set them against each other and crushed their revolt.

Gordon, High Pontiff of the First And Last Temple of Greenism, gasps — but then he remembers the first paragraph of the Greenist Catechism: "Tell the truth always, for the Blue Devil is the Father of Lies. Truth is good, because God the Green commands it. Lying and hypocrisy — living by untruth, yet seeming truthful by all outward signs , and benefiting richly thereby — are the ways of the Blues and of their father the Devil." The God of Greenism, the Father of Truth, has lost Gordon's allegiance. Gordon, now inwardly Blue, joyfully returns to his luxurious suite in the Temple, where he prepares his next sermon: "The Sky IS Green" and plans other ways to inspire his devout, trusting followers to revive the ancient Anti-Blue Crusades.

Consider a slightly different story. Eddin and Ferris come across a strange gas cylinder and both look at the warning labels the cylinder has.
Eddin: Ah. Explosive. I better handle this carefully then.
Ferris: Ah. Explosive. I really need a ciggarette now...

I'd go with Eddin as being the more rational reaction. Ferris sees, and understands there's more to be learned, but doesn't seem to make any effort to internalise or actually understand this knowledge. Both explore, but in diferent ways. At the end of the day though, neither immediate reaction is bad. No one is required to learn something in a single moment. What matters is whether they have other reactions (and specifically, each other's reactions) in the minites, hours, and days to follow.

There's good evidence that human color vision shows enormous individual physical variability in certain aspects. The ratio of long- to medium-wavelength cone cells as measured in one study varied by over an order of magnitude across color-normal males. A non-trivial lucky fraction of women are believed to be tetrachromatic like birds and reptiles. Some aphakic people (with missing or damaged lenses) who can see UV light have reported that it appears to be bluish-white.

I agree with the others. Most greens would insist that the sky is really green through any number of rationalizations.

Murphy the Green puffed his cheeks, whuffed in exasperation and thought "Why does Universe keep doing this to me! Let Accuracy Triumph Over Victory indeed. Does this data demand any changes to 'Sheep Bucket Truth', 'Light Switch Reliability', or 'Slavery Is Evil'? How about 'Trust And Audit' or 'Life Is Worth Defending'. No?" As his footsteps turned him homeward, his mind began to revisit other questions for which he had no satisfactory answer. I smile when he starts to think again, "What could the ancients have possible meant when they wrote about 'Outer Space'."

And the phrases are capitalized because that is the way he thinks about them.